Africa Oil Corp. T.AOI

Will we get any more news before end of quarter?

[DAGUY]

Just wondering if something will come out today or tomorrow. Thursday is end of month/quarter/half, and Friday a holiday so i don't know if anything would come out Thursday after hours... 

I would like to see another dividend from Prime...

[Lonegaurdian19]

If they forward sell oct -dec today they'd likely get around $103 - $8 lift per barrel. That'd be $95 netback on 26,000 bpd. I'd wager given the current capacity constraints with OPEC they could get and extra $5 PB if they wait a couple days. In any event $95 @ 26,000 @ 90 would mean $220,000,000 Q4. That's around $.47 EPS, use 1/4 for debt, 1/4 for buybacks and distribute the

[Suppe11]

Nice calculation, but totally off. Primes Q1 revenue was $400m and the costs were $281m + $97m (interest+taxes). Part of the costs was an overlift/underlift position of $154m, which seems to be more than normal.  To make a long story short...forget about $8 lifting costs and a netback of $95/bbl. Prime will net $100-150 per Q. In the next time they' plan drill some wells in the Nigerian

[Lonegaurdian19]

Interesting, appreciate being corrected. Difficult to determine amortization, interest, etc. lots of moving parts.  it will be interesting to se where in a rising interest rate environment what is worth keeping and what can be refinanced. Difficult to tell with such an out of favor industry, rising rates, and potential block extensions

[Suppe11]

If you ask me...Prime should pay down that debt to zero and save the yearly 50-60m interest. Btw. I made a mistake, Prime got a $12m financial cost benefit in Q1 (but normally they pay around $18m.

[DAGUY]

I think the 220M that was suggested for Q4 is not off, if Q1 was 400M revenue. Remember the 220M suggested was revenue for AOI portion only. That would be 440M for Prime as a whole. If they can get 100.00+ for their oil in Q4 the revenue would hopefully but higher than 400M.  Now how much that translates with everything taken out for net to AOI who knows, like you said that under/over was

[Suppe11]

Do we talk about the Prime level or Aoi level and revenues or distributable cash ? Sure, $ 220m+ revenue (Aois 50%) is not the the problem. He talked about a netback of $220m in Q4. The case is is very simple: $200m p.a. to Aoi seems ok. More, perfect...less...why?/not so good.

[DAGUY]

Yes sorry Suppe11. No one make 100% profit. lol the 220M netback is not going to happen. They could make it in revenue but they seem to have a lot of costs to make the net a lot less. Not 100% sure about the overlift/underlift and why it was so high. Hoping it is not htat high again, even though they said it was not a cash item. 

[Lonegaurdian19]

Can you elaborate on the costs specifically? 

[DAGUY]

If you look on sedar at the financial statement, Page 10 shows Primes Statement of Net Income... Some things are Depreciation, deplition and amotization. Productions costs, Movement in underlift/overlift, Royalties...  Then Tax is another big one.

[firstworld]

Youve probably heard that sonce the Nazis and 4thr Reich and sponsored an attack on the largest producer of clean and try on the planet, who now state "out pro act our terms" the NATO Nazis representing less than 11% of global population and 90% of its debt, have moves backwards about 7 decaded. 1. Coal is now the preferred sources from the primarily sponsor of Nazisim, Poland. 2. EU