Africa Oil Corp. T.AOI

JUST SOLD MY FIRST AOI IN 12 YEARS FOR MORE CPKC

[EGF30]

Well Doc, after being an investor in AOI for over 12 years - and little to show for it I didn't think today would be the day that I would start divesting my AOI, but here we are.

I have to thank you and your team's presentation today to help push me over the edge.

My reasoning is very simple and as I recently came across an article called 'Prospect Theory' this also helped push my decision as well.

When I think what are the chances that CPKC will double in the next 4-5 years and then again in the next 4-5 years after that is pretty darn good.

Like real darn good.

While the case could arguably be made for AOI to also perform like this, the reality is probably not.

No reason to not hold on to some shares for a long term hold, but my money has gotten much smarter over the years and it has told me loud and clear it has no intention of waiting another 5 years - or more to see if the good Doc is worth his salt or not.      

When I think of these four executives versus the executive team of CPKC, well again there is nothing to think about.

Laser focused versus not laser focused.

What a great feeling to finally break the chains of a long term laggard.

I sold a small amount at $2.49 versus a cost of $1.89 and immedaitely used the proceeds to pick up a few more CPKC.

See ya next quartely call Doc.

Double the dividend and pay it quarterly like everyone else does.       

GLTA.

[Suppe11]

Did they say something about the business or reorganization (=get rid of Prime/Afe/Eog/Impact/Aoi overheads) ? Or is "no acquisition anymore" + keep the stand-by credit for no reason everything they had to present ?

[EGF30]

A couple more things to add, the good Doc also mentioned the Impact deal will not be known publicly for a couple more months due to confidentiality agreements. He mentioned a possible exploration well for 3B/4B in 2025. The Doc was talking something about ‘Divorcing’ ECO. He went on to say something like ‘we are not really getting a divorce’ and mumbled a bit more on it. I took it as ECO will

[hikari]

I am wondering why this Mr. Tucker does not have more ambitious plans and goals for Africa Oil`s future. He runs a concept as if Africa Oil is a company with high dividends; to preserve the dividends and to minimize the risk of losing them. Management by objectives is necessary: after Mr Hill brought the company from zero to 30.000 bbl/d, Mr Tucker should bring this company from 20.000 bbl/d to

[Malachite]

My current impression is this: Prime as is secure and going to keep putting money in the bank. Preowei is low risk but will take time - 65Kbpd gross bpd at 50%. They got good deals being carried and retaining decent interest in the Orange basin. If I understand correctly, their proportion of costs would be converted to a loan if production startup is successful, but that's fine because it

[hikari]

in case you missed the presentation Go to minute 50 and start https://vimeo.com/935013696/0eabd4bc15

[Suppe11]

So Eco + Afe are non-core assets now = no takeover + skip at first opportunity. Total didn't want to take over Aoi, because the structure is too complicated...but they will in the future, to get rid of all these insects in Afe, Impact + Aoi...and make the structure more simple= fire all boards and let the cf directly to the bottom line. Nobrainer for Total, but maybe the time is not ripe now.

[firstworld]

When FID on production program occures they will allocate a few BN for AOI buyout offer around that time  that will also clear all AOI debt on the cost carry.   AOI would be foolish to accept but may have no choice because they wobt be able to keep up with thwor share multi hundred million cash calls to fund their share of Totals devlopment pace after "first oil". I

[Ferryboy]

I am now completely out of AOI as of this week .. all those "catalysts" we had going 2 years ago amounted to nothing for the share price and the Venus etc payoff is a long way off .. dead money for a while.  Plus an incredible reluctance from management to get serious with the return of capital program .. they are doing the absolute minimum I moved to another oil stock that I think

[Suppe11]

I think you showed the problem, the management didn't get. They sit there with their freebie shares getting too fat salaries and can fabulate about billions they're going to make in 2035. They were so proud of that "unheard of" deal with Total and thought it was the Nara drill, that killed the sp, while it was the "fantastic deal" they made. I guess the average

[Ferryboy]

I won't address all your points but I did watch the video of the presentation and they are simplifying their structure in term of cutting loose Eco Atlantic and Africa Energy.  Not worth their time and they are focusing on their core areas.  I think it was you who mentioned that Total wouldnt buy them because their set up was messy .. Roger mentioned that in the question period

[Suppe11]

Ok...I don't expect, that you cheer Aoi 1 day after you quit ;-) The charm vs. other oilers/peers (the big boys aside) is, that the risk is lower too. Easy to imagine a scenario, where the leveraged peers wipe out their equity...you have one of the last men standing here. Obviously, you don't want to have any oiler in such a scenary, but I guess, you've already seen it all too. With

[firstworld]

ENCL 17% annual div paid montly and ENCC 14%. They are cleaning house only to prepate for pending monetization event....no other reaso. to write off 10s M that has no liabiloties to speak of....and they did state special divs on monetizatipn events

[hikari]

I agree 100% with this analysis. AOI (Tucker) is preserving, consolidating and de-risking the current status, achieved during the Hill era,  which is good and important. Yes with this status AOI has a very good and comfortable basement with nowadays oilprice. But it is not good enough to get a higher value, price for AOI. This current basement is priced in with one billion $ market cap

[Suppe11]

Beside the joke of other oilers -> growth = depleting the reserves faster, I don't blame Aoi for not growing or not trying too. Venus should obviously replace the Nigerian assets, which will slowly peter out in 10 years. Then you have some fantasy growth with 3B/4B and maybe with the SA Afe asset. If they can guarantee a roughly 150m (free) cf p.a. for the next 20 years, you should buy

[firstworld]

Csyite sound like they are very happy collecting huge comp plus options for buearcratic work only.  The Csuite sgould be two people supported by 3 full tine max earning cp 140K year all others outsourced 60 hrs year 

[Suppe11]

Buddy, regarding Preowei...i guess it belongs to the Egina concession, so 16% Prime, 8% Aoi = 5200 bpd in 2 years after a roughly $1b development (160m to Prime/80m Aoi) and having the decline in mind..so rather boring and just paying for arresting the decline and push out the commercial life a bit. The only interesting thing there Imho: Maybe they discover more with their 16 development drills.

[Malachite]

Ah, Gotcha. I wasn't putting any value in for that anyways. Bought some on the dip and still holding... Still unsure exactly what to make of this... All the investors appear to be totally fed up with the company. It's a "this could be a 5B company by the 2030s" but also they are sucking on Prime until they can get some sort of production going. I imagine many investors thought

[Suppe11]

I sold half -as you know already- 2.57ish last week...no specific reason other than made too much money + the oil market showed some weakness to me. No it's more difficult...do we already entered the seasonal summer weakness (early) or do we get a last bounce ? Difficult question and a lot depends on the geo stuff. Sub $2, I would buy blindly...but I guess, I can't resist the low $2s

[Malachite]

From what they said and from the wording that they have to dance around for disclosure law reasons, essentially the strategy they are focussing on is much larger than what AFE and EOG. The same way they are calling Prime dividends "immaterial", these investments are immaterial. Nothing was said specifically about Africa Energy. EOG he went on a rant about we have a great relationship but