This article provides a lot of great information about Aris Mining and its underlying value. The iinfirnation/article is from Siyu Li (Under the Hood) which can be found on Substack. A very well written and informative article.
At year-end, while some tout winning picks, I want to discuss an underperforming "Under the Hood" portfolio company, $ARMN (Aris Mining).
This month, Colombia (DoE) passed a resolution to suspend env license issuance in Santurban region for two years to assess water resources.
Soto Norte (SN) is located in that area. At first glance, this is a material event, as SN is "an experienced miner's dream asset," as I wrote. The stock dropped from $4.3 (in October) to $3.5 today.
However, I valued SN at a modest $200Mn; a 17% drop has already wiped out ~$200Mn Mkt Cap. Furthermore, SN is a late 2026/27 project, and the suspension schedule aligns fine with Aris' plan.
Gold at $2.6k/oz, 2 Aris' crown jewel miners (Segovia and Marmato) are poised to generate $100Mn+ FCF Y25 and double in Y26. At <$1Bn EV, that is a mouth-watering FCF yield.
I remain bullish and added more this month.
If you haven't read the initial $ARMN writeup, you can learn about Aris' all-star team, its cash-generating assets, why Soto Norte is a miner's dream asset, and my valuation model here: https://underhood.substack.com/p/a-junior-gold-miner-with-big-potential