ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

2023 Hedges

[MyHoneyPot]

The hedges for 2023 are significantly better.

• The liquids hedges are reduced 50%, and are close to the money and higher prices no issues there. 

• The gas hedges are resonable.

A big turnaround from 2022 and should add between 500 and 600 million in FCF,  this hedging reduction will significatly offset some of the lower prices we have seen.

Also in addition to the hedge losses would be a higher percentage paid in royalites because of the higher realized prices last year, and the losses atributed to hedging.  

In Q1 expect a rerating for ARC, a company that is 40% liquids and will have significantly more FCF than TOU.

IMHO

[GunnerG]

You actually came around to our way of thinking.  Pointing out the bad hedges were rolling off and they are lowering the debt.  We have been telling you this forever,  instead of harping on the old news of the VII Gen lousy hedges. Of course you always have to stretch things by making a ridiculous prediction of a Q1 rerating during a time when all prices have been dropping like

[MyHoneyPot]

No there still be a Q1 rerating, as ARX will trash TOU in term of Funds flow and net back in the first quarter, arc is trading at a significant discount.  IMHO

[GunnerG]

Once again MHP is changing his prediction with the benefit of hindsight. Was "In Q1 expect a rerating for ARC..." to "That why i expect a rerating for Arx after the Q1 results and depending on their activity in Kakwa." Now it's after Q1 LOL. and depending on Kakwa activity.

[MyHoneyPot]

You so full of it, this garbage (Gunner) must be coming our of your ears!  ARX revenue per boe condensate increased significantly in Q1, and i posted previouly the impact of those hedges. However most analysts will not change a rating or project a change until they see it in black and white, when the Q1 results come out.  I already know that ARX netback per boe before this hedging

[GunnerG]

I am only repeating your words but of course your failed predictions have to be changed.   Q1, now, after Q1 results, soon to be, how about Q3 for a rerate?   You have had trouble understanding how companies are valuated or in your case, evaluated.   Have you looked up the condensate price yet?  You are my hero MHP, AKA WRONG MHP. Can't wait for Q1 results

[Quintessential1]

On page 20 of the Feb. investor report it shows Condy pricing being linked with WTI.  It trades a little above or below. Right now it shows a little below.  I wonder if ARX marketing team can squeeze more out of its condy sales like it does with its NG?  Not as many hubs and mostly needed in WCSB so I doubt it. https://www.arcresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/February-2023

[angelnicky]

ARX may head south just like all the other gas companies . Not much free cash flow at these depressed prices

[Trapped]

Nice to see this up on its ex-dividend date! Cheers and GLTA ARX bulls!