Post by
templetooth2 on Dec 15, 2023 3:30pm
Arizona Sonoran v. Arizona Metals
Sonoran has 118 million fully-diluted shares for a market cap (at today's $1.73) of $204 million.
Az. Metals has 123.6 full-diluted shares for a market cap (at $1.30) of $160 million.
Sonoran has 5.17 billion pounds of copper in the M&I category so the copper in the ground is being valued at 3.95 cents per pound. Metals hasn't yet produced a Mineral Resource Estimate, but a well-informed shareholder, Michael Gentile uses 20 million tonnes at 3% Cu which would give you 600,000 tonnes or 1,320,000,000 pounds which the market is valuing at 12.1 cents per pound.
These numbers ignore current cash and AMC's Sugarloaf gold property. With yesterday's news from Sonoran, we have a project that will be making news thru-out 2024, and if the Rio Tinto technology lives up to expectations, a mine that's mostly or fully financed. Arizona Metals, on the other hand should get regulatory approval for the Plan of Operations (permission to do drilling) late in 2024.
Someday, Az. Metals will be a worthwhile buy, especially as the promised spin-out of Sugarloaf comes into some kind of focus. In the meantime, it's no contest.
I calculated the respective cents per pound in the ground about 2 months ago. Sonoran's price at the time yielded something in the low 3's and Metals was over 20 cents. So these numbers have converged a fair amount, but IMO, lots more to go.
Comment by
templetooth2 on Dec 15, 2023 4:09pm
Arithmetic Blunder!!! Sorry. I thought something was off. So AMC closed today at $2.20 per share. I was using $1.30. Silly blunder. Let's run this again. At $2.20, Az. Metals has a market cap of $272 million and that implies a copper-in-the-ground value of 20.6 cents per pound. ASCU is 12.1 cents per pound.
Comment by
m2m123 on Dec 16, 2023 6:35am
Thanks for this analysis. Both are good companies and great buys at current share prices. AMC has a lot more drilling to do and may very well find a lot more copper.