Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Still under $1

[x4n2t0x]

What happened to the prognosticators?

[Chris007]

LOL. Even among prognosticators, there are two different types… There are those that believe the stock should trade higher due to the fact that the stock’s intrinsic value is higher than the current market price. Whether you come to this conclusion via relative valuation using peer multiples or discounted cash flow…atleast these guys base their predictions on fact/data…if they can explain why

[CandyC]

that's exactly me. Lol. I'm pumping. I am somewhat new to investing but I know very little. I do PVR BNN and CNBC and watch most analysts. Most think oil is going to $100 or just trade between 80-100 for several years. Eric Nuttal's analysis seems understandable out of every analyst I watch. Most of us are not experts and I put myself at the very bottom of it. I just listen to what

[Nothingmatters]

Obviously oil has to stay above $70 for quiet some time for it to be $4 stock. ATH is the most undervalued. Momentum is with oil. Tend is your friend. Imo glta

[CandyC]

I'm thinking of two quarters above $70 WTI for Athabasca to be above $3. What are your thoughts?

[Nothingmatters]

Yes atleast $2 for sure. Or above. This is my prognosis.

[Chris007]

Assuming they can lower net debt this year by around $100m and WTI averages at 70 (without them having hedged the majority of it at a much lower price) 70 - 43 (cash flow break even) = 27 *each $5 increment in WTI above 43 generating 70M in cash flow* 27/5 = 5.4 5.4 x 70 = 378M 378M x 4x EV/CF multiple (3-4x typical of energy small caps, large caps trade around 5-6x) = 1,512M 1,512M - 319M

[Todamoon18]

Keep in mind the market is forward looking AND also ATH is getting ZERO value for having no geopolitical risk and world class reserve life. As it is the stock is trading as if WTi is trading @ $60. M&A imminent and ATH will be front and center. Last time I held an energy stock valued so cheaply was Hurricane Hydrocarbons when it paid a special $4/share dividend when the SP was $8.It

[Chris007]

Suffice to say, the investment climate for o&g was a lot different 20 years ago and today (the hurricane hydrocarbons buyout was 2001) ...That was pre-shale revolution, at a time when the dominant narrative was that the world was running out of oil and gas Hell, theres no bigger symbol of this massive change than the fact that back in 2001, Exxon Mobil was the 3rd largest company in the

[Chris007]

Just as a further follow up, just look at the case of ATH, itself. They bought the statoil assets in 2016 for roughly $600M in 2016...Statoil/Equinor bought those assets in 2007 for 2.2B And even more comical was Statoils $4.4B acquisition of bakken assets in 2011, which they sold this year for $900M Fact of the matter is, the investment climate in 2021 is a hell of a lot different then a

[Todamoon18]

yes HH was a long time ago...believe Petro China bought them out back then. My point was simply that energy stocks were cheap then....and now are very cheap again and I`m expecting special dividends to be paid out by several small-mid caps if oil prices stay strong.I doubt many saw $75 WTI this early.Lets say it does make its way to $80-$100 ++...kind of makes you wonder what is possible

[filefish]

Lets not forget that AOC sold a share of their undeveloped oil sands leases for $1.9 billion to Petro China about 9 years ago. At the time, a great deal by ATH to get their remaining Oil Sands, and light oil asset development going. Unfortunately, overspending on Hangingstone squandered away a large portion of these funds. A likely potential for asset value to be realized again  is when the