Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

2 MONTHS OF $7 HOLDING THE LINE

[SNAKEYBOY]

No more....sellers want out at any price.   Manji should dump FCR/D if he hasnt already and execute a nice 15m SIB

[jmkOttawa]

And he would do this to rescue your sense of failure having invested in Artis?

[Frankie10]

It's not a scene of failure - it's genuine failure. 

[Reece1986b]

 I must sound like a broken record and I keep repeating myself because I just can't bring myself to understand why we didn't reload our assets held for sale. It seems like we are going to waste the entire third quarter while Samir contemplates what options there are for Artis. Frankie says there is no buyer out there who is going to pay some massive premium for a REIT which is almost

[SNAKEYBOY]

I dont understand why FCR wasnt dumped at $18 for 200m while looking at ~1b in debt rolling over this year

[EstevanOutsider]

Jackie K said there was alot of demand for Artis retail assets and inbound inquiries with a cap rate of low 5s being applied on all asset class dispositions. Lots of people get ahead of themselves on a bagholder forum (stockhouse) but I see no reason for concern. I don't think a full reit sale is in the works nor have they implied that. they clearly indicated their intention to close the nav

[jmkOttawa]

Agree, Estevan. In less than 5 months we will be in 2024. Rates will begin to decrease, cap rates will adjust the other way, and unit prices will recover. I don't sense that Artis will reduce the distribution, and they will do well in the long term. Those who bought in today's bargain basement unit prices will make a killing.

[SNAKEYBOY]

No guarantee rates will cool off...central bankers want to keep going.   Hard for anyone to predict where rates will be in 2024, but we can very well have 6% rates and CRE that is 20% lower. Scary and not out of the question

[jmkOttawa]

There are never guarantees. However, in a year from now if rates have not begun to drop- there will be countless families walking away from their mortgages, and the country will not be able to carry the interest on the national debt. It's just a matter of time, and anything under 50 percent debt to gross book value is not particularly worriesome. And there will be asset sales, but in a manner

[SNAKEYBOY]

Good points.  Rates can't last even with US debt of 32 trillion.  I'm only exuberant cause I have a multi million dollar reit portfolio that keeps Sinking. 

[jmkOttawa]

You and me both, but I have seen this cycle twice before in my life. It always comes right with patience and goes higher than the previous peak. And it happens more quickly than you expect when it corrects. Canada's rapidly growing population owing to the current immigration policy only makes this more likely.  the only problem is when you have no choice but to sell at the bottom, such

[EstevanOutsider]

H&R seems promising but a similiar boat to Artis with alot of near term maturities. Unlike Artis, they lack a clear and consice plan to tackle those maturities and they also lack insider committment. I like H&R and added it on Frankie's pitch but have a much bigger position in Artis. Not sure which one does better, think they both do good, but like Artis' strategy of selling assets

[SNAKEYBOY]

HR has a strong management team, I dont think they are going into the maturities blindly....they are selling assets and running a NCIB, and unlike artits, they are focusing on office/retai so their composition after is investor friendly asset classes

[EstevanOutsider]

that sounds good in principal unless you consider insturial and residential topping out, which I do. the only residential reit that attracts me is minto because of a massive nav discount. sell industrial and residential at tops and buy counter cyclically on the bottoms.

[Frankie10]

H&R is 41.5% residential and the residential component implied cap rate per my calc is roughly 6.2%. IFRS cap rate on Minto is 3.95% (lower than the risk free rate!!?) - these NAV discounts are comical - I don't even need to calculate the implied cap rate with a 50% discount to NAV to know it's going to come out lower than 6.2%. who's got better quality? I know H&R has

[EstevanOutsider]

well i don't know US markets but what i like about minto is the potential for rate of change on expired leases, in markets which i consider undervalued - calgary, edmonton. also consider ottawa the best rental market in canada and montreal has greatly improved, especially on minto properties/neighborhoods. regardless i dumped it to add more plaza and allied. risk-reward is just too good on