Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Updated Model

[Frankie10]

https://x.com/alphafortuna10/status/1790413257431265355?s=46
 

I've updated my implied cap rate model given the material nature of assets held for sale. TLDR I have the implied cap rate for Artis on a pre-tax basis of 10%+ *assuming* assets held for sale will be sold at book value, IRIS equity worth nil, and IRIS prefs are worth their face value. Q2 investments & buybacks not accounted for.

I've also provided the implied discount on the IFRS value, which I have then used to estimate the  implied cap rates for every individual asset class on a proportionate basis (may not be 100% appropriate - this is art not science despite the numbers)... the implied cap rates by asset type, compared to comparable implied caps for pure plays of the same asset type should be the real take away here. Value is relative and on a relative basis - the only thing more attractive than Artis, from a valuation perspective, appears to be H&R. Of course, imho.

[Frankie10]

Why do I fixate on cap rates for REITs?   Because these are asset businesses not cashflow businesses. Balance sheet is hard assets not goodwill of PV of future earnings.    AND Because when the CEO is willing to SELL IT ALL  you: use an asset-based approach. Imho of course *eating popcorn with feet up* happy to chat valuation approach and appropriateness with

[garyreins]

Wake me up when manji gets unit price above 7... which is still not that impressive

[Frankie10]

You should have sold and bought the S&P500 a year ago. You would have been better off, this board would be better off, your mental health would likely be better off... based on your thesis, you may not be too late to rotate. Give it a go and short REITs simultaneously as an added gambit to recoup losses! As always, please get the professional help you so desperately require. Cheers.

[garyreins]

If we're playing that game then in hindisght you should have shorted the he* out of these trd reits particularly artis and nwh and even HR

[Frankie10]

No snakey, the difference between us is you see them turds, while I see them as great real estate portfolios trading at a great price. its a subtle difference, but it makes all the difference. 

[DZtrader]

I can't add to that, you are well versed in all things valuation and I don't think many could hold their own against you, well done as always. The one thing I would say however, is, while Manjji has shown a willingness to sell, I think it is a stretch to think he will piece meal the whole thing and thank goodness he is shrewd enough not to succumb to bottom feeders, thus the model at

[Frankie10]

Dz, my guy. Pardon my hyperbole. "Sell it all" is a quote from the movie Margin call and was a subtle reference to when over a year ago on an earnings call, Heather (Samir's right hand) said mortgages were rolling as high as in the 7% range and my immidiate reaction was to - sell it all. I'm merely being hyperbolic. Even a willingness to sell a quarter of total assets would mean

[DZtrader]

I should have realized that, still well done. With regards to the cpi. Was going to respond to a post yesterday and say put me down for 3.4 which is where I thought it was going to settle, honestly. It has just become almost laborous to post sometimes as it is often met with jibberish replies and sometimes unexpected vitriol. Tiring at times. I have zero problems with discussion and welcome

[Torontojay]

I guess you were not confident enough to make your prediction of 3.4% before the release after your previous horrendous prediction the previous month?   

[DZtrader]

I'm not sure why you are trying to pick a fight here with me. For the record, I did think 3.4 would be the number. I didn't post it. I truly could care less if you believe it or not. Your arrogance is showing again. No one other than yourself should be able to make a correct assesment? As for previous "horrendous" predicition, I am not sure what you are speaking of however I have

[Torontojay]

Btw, you spelled nonesense wrong.

[DZtrader]

So I did. I have CSS, thanks for the correction.