Post by
Torontojay on Jul 17, 2024 3:26pm
S&P bubble
Stocks do not do well when the valuation is 2 standard deviations above the mean across various metrics and the bond market is inching closer to uninverting.
I predict an epic crash is sooner than you think.
Comment by
garyreins on Jul 17, 2024 3:29pm
bears have predicting crashes for the past 2 yearss. I think s & p will end year at 6000
Comment by
Torontojay on Jul 17, 2024 3:30pm
Monetary policy works with long and variable lags. You need at least a year with rates as high as they are for the full impact to take effect. You Gary should know better than that.
Comment by
garyreins on Jul 17, 2024 3:34pm
Well the 10 year above 4% is not that bearish. When its diving under 3.5% its time to get concerned
Comment by
Torontojay on Jul 17, 2024 3:50pm
The front end usually collapses a lot faster than the long end. I would pay attention to the 1 or 2 year bond to see where it's going.