Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

INTEREST RATES

[garyreins]

We should have 200bp cuts in next 2 years back to 3.5% or 3% in canada... neutral.  And reits should trend up during this time. 


If this doesn't happen it'd be insane

[stooard]

sounds about right. do you follow fed decisions on that cmegroup fedwatch tool? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

[garyreins]

nah the bond market tells the story, not the fed watch

[Torontojay]

  I follow it.  There is a 94% chance of a rate cut in September. Exactly as I had predicted earlier in the year. J Powell likes to see 3 and 6 months annualized inflation lower than headline before he feels confident that things are headed in the right direction.  Cme Fedwatch tool is predicting 3 rate cuts by the end of the year with a probability of 50.8%.   

[Torontojay]

  Not necessarily.  If the front end drops very fast and unemployment rises with surging defaults and bankruptcies then I'm afraid most asset classes will take a hit. 

[garyreins]

It would demonstrate the central banks utter most "incompetence" if things unravel fast.  All over "CPI" thats in the 2s