Post by
garyreins on Oct 23, 2024 9:34am
Think about how little sense this makes
BEFORE powell delievered one cut, and lots of financing being rolled at higher rates, the US economy randomly picked up steam in late summer. maybe mid way through cutting cyle
this makes no sens
TJ and buffet have to be right here- the data is obsure and can result at any desired number
Comment by
Torontojay on Oct 23, 2024 10:05am
Owning t-bills make a lot of sense because if the US economy suffers in 2025 then you roll over your short term t-bills and buy securities at a cheap price. If US avoids a recession altogether then long term rates move higher and stocks don't do well when the 10 year rises. The earnings yield on the S&P 500 will have to adjust to longer term rates moving higher.