Post by
BBDB859 on Oct 04, 2021 11:40am
Q3 and Q4 for 2021
What to expect.
A quick glance at the revenues for Q1 + Q2 we have about $2.8 B in the bag. If we get another $1.3B this quarter which is close to what to expect given the strong service end, along with 21 deliveries, and about 6 dashed (could be used high margin rebuilts) planes delivered for Q1. We could be looking at a total of about $4.1B for the 3 quarters of 2021. With a strong book to bill of greater than 1 for Q3, our inventory is going to increase slightly, and our EBTDA will keep getting higher given that the learning curve on the G7500 is pretty much over, and profits are coming in strongly from the service revenues side.
If what EM/BD are predicting for 2021 deliveries of 120 planes is true? Then Q4 deliveries will be around 48 planes. Plus a strong service side for the Quarter. That should equate to about 2.7B in revenues for Q4. Even if we get $2.5B out of the 4th quarter, it's still great.
So $4.1B already plus another $2.5B from Q4 = I see $6.6B for 2021. That's $600M over what they've predicted for guidence of 2021 revenues. I see that $7.5B revenue prediction and $1.5B EBITDA by their 2025 Guidence arriving quicker than predicted.
This will be a banner year for the EM team.
Given the EBITDA trend so far. They should pull out about $700M for 2021. Because remember the MARGINS are getting better from both the service side and the G7500 production profits. If they can get to their industry margins of 12% soon, then that EBITDA should be prety good in the coming year.
Not bad for a company that was uncertain about its future a year ago. Cheers 859
Comment by
MyNameIsNobody on Oct 04, 2021 12:19pm
I hope your analysis of the situation is right amigo... wouldn't mind seeing these numbers show up in the next quarterly results.