Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Look for 100% return

[Form001]

And more in 2022.

[Skyisthelimite]

Same, I see a big resistance at 42$ (1.70$ pre RS) it should be arround that price when Q3 numbers come out, after the conference call, it should gap up again and reach the $60's (2.40$/2.50 pre RS) well at least, that's what my cristal ball is saying...lol gltal

[Form001]

Yes but it's a possibility to reach 47.00 to 48.00 with the swing. Time will tell.

[PabloLafortune]

I don't know what the stock will do over the next few days/weeks/months tbh esp. if the past is any indication. But long term, this has upside, possibly 5X. And limited downside.  if they increase production 20%, get more pricing power (ie higher ASP), higher margins, control SG&A, R&D expenses and capex outlays, substantially reduce interest costs and last but certainly not least

[Truthifest]

Pablo, thx for the valuation comments.  What are ur thoughts regarding sector multiples comps? Are investors willing to pay up for Bomber, if that's what the comps show they would have to? TIA Agreed that a lot is yet to play out.

[PabloLafortune]

I only "follow" GD, TXT and Airbus, even then it's superficial . The P/Es which excludes debt are similar 19-22. The EV to sales which includes debt varies more from 1.26 to 1.92. If you look at a blowout napkin target for BBD in 2023, 144 deliveries, $45M ASP, $1.5B service revenue, 19% gross margins, $680M G&a and R&D (guess it will be higher for sure) and $375 M interest

[Starsearcher80]

Great post Pablo.  Thank you for that.   It's kind of funny.  I've also come up with the same pie-in-the-sky share valuations, and was shocked by my own numbers, thinking I must have made some mistake.  But there is no mistake, and the numbers, shocking as they are, are fully valid and fully supportable.

[Bottoms]

For what it's worth, I too had independently come up with $150 as the high end of a rational range based on 2025 estimates provided by management. Stay patient folks. GLTA

[Form001]

Same numbers of me, nobody knows about how much the cost of interest each year? I think it's around 400 to 500M  but I'm not sure. 

[BBDB859]

I have come up with similar numbers posted here on the board. I said that a $220 SP wasn't out of the question by 2025. This was when the SP came down to $18.00 post R/S. I remember having the conversations with some posters like Club and Bottoms, on future EV evaluations for the company. When some other posters like LE/bogo commented that those numbers were outrageous. The numbers don't

[PabloLafortune]

Thanks all. The prospective #'s and what it could mean for the share price are hard to fathom to be sure. a big part of it is the past mis-steps have jaded investors but now that all the non core is gone, we finally have line of sight to those potential results.  Also, Of course Bombardier has great assets and people, but the most important is management. When management has no vision

[PabloLafortune]

859, to your credit you've been saying that for a while................  If I'd listened my cost on the shares I added would be $20 instead of $25.  I almost did before the results came out but chickened out at the last minute........Cheers, Pablo.

[Starsearcher80]

Well to your point, some people might be wondering if they missed the opportunity to enter at a good price. Personally, i think it's still early, with the vast majority of the run still to come. Only top of the 3td inning to my thinking.

[PabloLafortune]

if it dips, I'lll add but I'm not sure that it will. When I ran the #s's with lower debt/interest, the share price increase at a given P/E ratio floored me.

[lb1temporary]

Out of cash I sold some shares monday, to buy options. Already largely in the profit zone  More leverage. If you think that more is to come, it's a good strategy but.......with care: always plays your profit this way, never your basic investment and reasonnable amount.  

[clubhouse19]

Agree.. There is a lot to go even to get back to 2.00 +.    This is actually more fun and challenging when you can hold a core position and do some trading at the same time. Though I admit the core position is doing  much better than the trades in the last little while.      

[Starsearcher80]

Club as a trader, I would trade the heck out of anything if I thought it was worth it.  But as I've noted here, I really think the better strategy at this point is to sit back and enjoy.  Particularly with the low float, the intraday swings can be a little tough to to manage.  While I'm NOT trading this stock right now, I monitor how I "would" have done, and as you

[MyNameIsNobody]

I like that post Star, always good to keep tab of the trades we haven't done... keeps us honest and informed... other than that we would only remember the money we 'lost' with the ones that would have been great. I'm not a trader but I do look at swing trades from times to times.

[BBDB859]

Don't worry Pablo, $25 is good. I would like to buy more too. But I always think about the monetary number invested here. What I mean is, that I've averaged down, a couple of times over the years, and have way too much cash into this one stock. So I'll just sit it out. If you got room then go ahead and add some more. Like Star said we are still in the 3rd inning of along run. I believe

[bicente]

We've had many discussions trying to figure out the bomber's real value in the past , and like yourself , my evaluations always came out looking like pie-in-the-sky dreams ... no matter how you crunch the numbers bottom line is that the bomber gets no live out there , their past is haunting them more than I and many others thought it would .. We have to be patient , very patient , to get

[Shamhorish]

bicente, yes absolutly right as yousaid "the service department will be very profitable , and much more in demand going forward"  a few more Positive Quarters "i think about 3-4) and bbd will gain and gain and up it will go

[firstworld]

All bets are off if RU restricts exports to Nazi supporters....bbd production will freeze. That can happen at any moment there is no better way to starve out Nazis that stop access to materials just like they did in WW2 against the Nazis. Alloys, gas for Europe, various gasses used for chip production.....they have a market of 7 B people for that no need to sell to Nazi supporters LOL. It's