Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Hilarious....COMPLETELY ...Hilarious!

[mrmomo]

Pluto wrote:
"Given all the dire predictions - why did BIR go up today? Shouldn't we immediately drop to $3.75 since we are certain that nat gas is dead and the divy will be cut? Will it be a slow walk down to $3?"


WOW.......it's amazing to me THAT investors such as PlutarkOfAthens STILL exist in these markets and are soooo lost, soooo confused that i'm ashtonished that the unforgiving & brutual process of natural selection didn't kick in and put guys like out-of-commission by total extinction. I guess maybe Mr. pluto was one of the lucky dinosaurs.....who was just fortunate enough to be be spared for now.....

What's EVEN more crazy.....and i hope its NOT the case to any meaningful extent.... is that some very naive, inexperienced foks are actually listening to the bad advice he gives & has given over.....and over on this fourm. He's been totally wrong, off the mark sooo many times that i lost count.....but HEY whats one more time? Options right? LOL.

And i'll end with this........IF Mr. Pluto Of Athens has no frigin idea, he REALLY doesn't know WHY Birch went up 6% yesterday (thanks JP btw lol!) then may i STRONGLY suggest he immediately stop giving out BAD advice......ANY advice or counsel on ANYTHING,,,,, and maybe find a new hobby or passtime rather than taking risks which he does not understand or cannot manage by investing in this perilous stock market.

Just some good, decent, wise advice from someone who knows.....WTH is going on!


GLTA


P.S. This advertisment was brought to you and paid for by the World Wide Federation of extremely competent Investors.

[okgonow]

lots of people getting in on the div. just a matter of can you get out on monday with less than  .20 loss if you dont intend on holding the stock. double payoff for the daytrading types

[PlutusofCrete]

Momo I admit I am not a great investor. Can someone on this board help me understand if the divy is cut in half is there a potential for the stock to pop as opposed to drop?  Chemtrade is an example of a company that cut their divy in half and saw a recovery in their share price - they are also a very leveraged company - lots of debt.  I feel like BIR is not overly leveraged....but

[barneyj44]

My guess is there will be short term pain if and when they cut the dividend as Dividend paying funds will be forced to liquidate.  I will add to my position at such a time shoukd it happen. Still think we get consolidated....Markets looking better the last couple of days. Pembina gearing up for Lng Canada coming to fruition.

[PlutusofCrete]

Thanks for the insight Barney. I wonder if there's a way for us to see how many funds actually hold BIR.  I feel like there wouldn't be many interested in O&G these days. 

[mrmomo]

OK....i'll bite & play along.....IF you're really sincere in your intentions. It "seems" that you've come off that high horse of yours, come back to earth and reality and wish to discuss things in a "more" reasonable manner.... with any subject matter pertaining to Birch. And i'm game for that..... and will give ANYONE a "2nd" chance to do so

[itsalie]

look at gear for an example of what happens after a divvy cut

[Maxmoe]

And look at what happened to Ath that NEVER paid a dividend. It's outperformed all the high dividend paying stocks. Oil producers have volatile cash flows. Period. Nobody should ever buy them for a divy like they expect to get from bell. No producer should pay a large % of cycle high cash flow as a "regular" dividend. The only reasonable divy policy is a small basic with occasional

[barneyj44]

Thanks Maxmoe, appreciate your views. Spot on with Tourmaline going the Special Dividend route, the oil market can change on a dime (like it has) and locking in a dividend can get a company in hot water. Still long Birchcliff as simple back of the napkin says if they cut the dividend they slow down the cash burn. The assets are good and worth more then the price were trading at. 

[Maxmoe]

That's the reason I was buying today. I've never bought any commodity producer for the divy yield. If I want yield I buy banks and utes. A cold snap would be nice

[PlutusofCrete]

Thanks Maxmoe, Barney, and Momo. Barney - I know you're been following BIR for some time now. Have you trimmed your position at all?  I'm thinking of possibly selling now and buying back lower next year. Full disclosure my avg cost is $4.21. Too bad I didn't sell at $11/12. I bought into the higher for longer commodity price story but that might not be the case. 

[barneyj44]

I'm holding for time being, now is not the time to sell as far as I'm concerned. Tax loss selling , low commodity price, these are the times to be adding. If you have lost faith in management you may want to sell Bir and add another NG that's been pummeled like Peyto, Advantage etc. Plenty of bargains if the commodity has found a bottom. Kitimat is getting closer and closer.

[Maxmoe]

Indeed. The tide raises and drops all boats. My little dinghy and the massive LNG tanker headed to Asia. The hardest part to investing in any commodity producers , or even any stock at all, is having some dry powder on hand when it's time to pull the trigger. Like the last couple weeks of almost every year I've been investing. 

[MuskokaNeeds]

Great info thanks

[Maxmoe]

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[mrmomo]

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