Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Possible takeover???

[sergio2go]

It is weird that the market is willing to pay more for this stock since the NG price is going down unless there is something cooking. No word from the company...unleess market smell a possible takeover. Birchliff looks like an attractive stock that might be suitable for a Tourmaline for instance, especially with the new NGL line that should be operationnal this summer. Just saying...

[PlutusofCrete]

not yet...not yet...I think in the summer. 

[sergio2go]

Market's behavior suggest something else.

[PlutusofCrete]

I feel like we've seen this run up in BIR before and then a subsequent hangover. 

[PlutusofCrete]

Someone just earned their 40 cent divy today with this price movement.  They will be dumping it into the YE results next week. I don't see a takeout yet. 

[robert41]

I would think a halt would be in order when your stock runs for no reason if a takeover was in the works. It's either speculation or short covering. Here's the house positions for today for what it's worth.  House Positions for C:BIR from 20240207 to 20240207 House Bought $Val Ave Sold $Val Ave

[itsalie]

not sure why shorts would cover.. no releif in sight for gas stocks.. most gas stocks are in the red 

[dandu1924]

We saw this kind of move  with RZE before their bankruptcy.  Smell weird.

[PlutusofCrete]

Okay well BIR is not going bankrupt. That would have happened at the onset of the pandemic. 

[sergio2go]

Birchcliff have a sound balance sheet. It is also way undervalued. Only problem is the payout ratio but if this stock is integrated to a major player, that problem is no more. Let's not forget that the book value is in the neighborhood of $10. Even a this possible acquisition price, this stock remains attractive.

[beelzeebuub1]

..shorts taking profits ?  could be the comopany is buyihg back shares in the market under its normal course issuer bid.. could be an institution taking a positionl.. LNG completion at ktimat.. or a takeover.. take your pick ? 

[downwithdotcom1]

disagree on the NCIB..typically they are structured on a max DAILY VOLUME based on the historical trading average so as to not skew the trading price. On the other hand, BIR is dirt cheap reflective of NG prices RIGHT NOW but its got great assets, its one of the lowest cost producers and its got huge reserves for down the road. Maybe another cold snap but then the summer leading into 1st gas flows

[robert41]

Some of these shorts have made a bundle and sometimes you just want to book profits... 

[itsalie]

shorts are retail, they're not covering until maximum gains have been extracted.. something is up imho

[PlutusofCrete]

Time will tell.

[robert41]

16 million retail shorts how would anyone know they are retail? I know a few brokers they go short oil and gas and others all the time as do hedge funds.

[robert41]

Nice positive day for the longs here hope it continues and wasn't just one of those one day wonders. Interesting to see crew follow along as well. Perhaps on the back of the good news from aav.

[PlutusofCrete]

Sub $2 NG is all we need...I hope it goes lower and BIR goes higher! It all makes sense. 

[itsalie]

meant to say shorts are not retail

[robert41]

Right that makes sense .....this run suggests they are cashing in and either moving on or going short again.. I think the big factor is we aren't sure how kitimat will affect producers. Perhaps they view Bir and others as under market and are taking positions ahead of time who knows

[PlutusofCrete]

with the way this is going up...I wish I was a buyer at $4.65. 

[barneyj44]

For all we know there could be an Asian consortium kicking the tires, Lng Canada is getting to the home stretch. A decade ago when our Canadian Oil companies were stretched there was some overseas investors stepping in.