Bonterra Energy Corp T.BNE

Cardium competitor analysis

[Hendrick3]

Cardium Competitor analysis 

The 2020 reserve reports for each of these Cardium producers use similar price decks and therefore are a good point of comparison. I am taking the NPV numbers discounted at 10% which already include reclamation costs, then deducting the net debt abd dividing the balance by the shares outstanding. I believe this is the best indication of relative value. I have compared these numbers with the current share price to establish relative undervaluation. The results are as follows:
                      PDP.        TP.          TPP
IPO.              $1.02.      $1.94.     $3.50
$.53.               52%.         27%.      15%

OBE.            $3.70.       $6.28.      $9.78
$1.50.             40%.        24%.        15%

YGR.            $1.36.       $10.58.    $15.29
$1.10.              81%.        10%.        7%

BNE.            $2.64.         $9.91.      $16.55
$3.52.            133%.         36%.          21%

All of these stocks are using conservative price decks that are consistent across companies and are about 30% below current prices for 2021. They are all undervalued but I wanted to highlight that some are much worse than others. If you did the same analysis for the senior producers, not one would have a stock price below their PDP book value.

Any comments appreciated

[Tim14235]

Same reserve auditor?

[Hendrick3]

Not sure but it really doesn't matter. The days of widely differing reserve evaluations ended some years ago when standardized processes were require by exchange commissions to ensure consistency. I did look through the price decks and they all seem to be in line.  Do you disagree with the analysis? by way of comparison, CPG is at 127% of PDP and BTE covers about half of their net

[Tim14235]

Price decks are different. But if you reviewed them and they are close that is good for me. I think there is two major auditors, Sproule and GJ something

[AliNaimi]

 Appreciate the PDP comparisons but not sure how relevent this is without more colour. Long life assets garner higher multiples and the oil/gas mix of various Cardium players further changes the valuations. Peyto has Cardium but in the gas fairway, YGR is mixed and then you have the oilier fairway Cardium players. Lumping all these names together is not neceesarily helpful as all Cardium was

[Hendrick3]

You seem like you are pretty astute so hopefully I am not stating the obvious. The colour commentary is that IPO, OBE and YGR are all way undervalued compared to BNE and almost every player in the sector. If you wanted to invest in a stock with huge multiple upside, you would want a piece of these companies.  As I am sure you know NPV of reserves gives credit for long lived assets and takes