Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.

Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

TSX:BTE - Post Discussion

Baytex Energy Corp > BTE: Merger Medicine
View:
Post by ResearchSeeker on Oct 24, 2024 2:49pm

BTE: Merger Medicine

Debt is Kryptonite to prospective investors, both institutional and private. Ignore this fact, and watch the stock price tank into the abyss… Isn’t that where we are now.
 
A shout out to JohnnyDoe, Red2000, and many other longs for providing great input. Thanks
 
---
 
They way a prospective investor may see Baytex at this time, is that the executives are serving the banks, and looking to join the board of an acquiring company. In this perception, that may or may not turn out to be valid, it is not a good result for shareholders. This is why institutional ownership is low in percentage terms.
 
Banks are making a killing on BTE Senior Notes, at the expense of shareholders who once upon a time received a monthly dividend.
 
Rather than be perceived myself as a doubter, I offer some solutions. Here they are:
 
Suspend all share buybacks until the company is debt free.
Propose a 4:10 share reverse split. (Takes us from 787 Million Shares to 315 Million Shares)
Leave the current dividend as-is, until the debt is zero. Increase it gradually afterwards.
Reduce E&D expenditures from $1.2 - $1.3 billion to $600 million max for 2025, and repeat until debt is zero.
Save 5% of free cash flow each quarter to allow for unexpected events, or future acquisitions.
Use all of the remaining free cash flow to pay down debt
 
Amend the bylaws to:
Prevent debt from ever being used again, to make acquisitions.
Prevent share dilution from being used in a merger
Prevent the company from being acquired while it has debt on the books.
Allow the option of share consolidation to be used in a merger.
Halt offering free shares to executives. Those who are executives should know how to buy them with their own money on the open market. If they don’t put their own money in play with BTE, then replace them, unless they are doing their job well. Well means employees and shareholders will rate them favorably, institutional ownership in the stock is 75% or greater.
Comment by Antonyius on Oct 24, 2024 4:36pm
Can't say I disagree with all but what would a 2-5 reverse stock split do? Doesn't fundamentally change anything.  Also, if they cut their drilling expenditures by half, then they'll start declining in bbl/d produced, why would they do that? Lastly, no management that's not a microcap is going to consider no stock compensation, unless you're gonna pay them a ridiculous ...more  
Comment by dllscwbysfn on Oct 24, 2024 6:06pm
LOL, It would take them 10 years to get debt to zero and their production would likely be at about 20,000boe. NO THANKS  You must have started the weekend a little early, cheers!!
Comment by AvInvestor on Oct 24, 2024 6:40pm
Poorly written, using debt wisely can be an extremely useful tool for companies to succeed and grow. At present, the debt level is fine subject to the price of oil. Why not sell the heavy oil assets and use the proceeds to extinguish part of the debt and conduct more buybacks? In effect, de-risking the business. 
Comment by JohnnyDoe on Oct 24, 2024 8:01pm
The debt level is NOT fine. In historical terms, sure, the debt level is fine. In terms of being able to service the debt, the debt level is fine. In terms of current comparables, the debt level is not fine and the inability to make material progress against the debt after a year of 80 wti is why this thing is in the tank.. Seriously, we're looking at 5 years of 80 wti to hit the target debt ...more  
Comment by ManitobaCanuck on Oct 24, 2024 9:37pm
Their FCF is skewed to Q3/Q4 so it's obvious debt will be tackled in 2024 YE .YTD WTI is 78 . Fitch has projected their debt at YE2024 to be 2.3bil (look at April 2024 outlook ) .When you read the report you also understand that FCF will be skewed to Q3/Q4.
Comment by JohnnyDoe on Oct 25, 2024 8:10am
I get all that Manitoba and if in February they are doing a YE CC and they hit all the Q3/Q4 projections I will applaud.  But I don't see that happening. What I do see happening is a CC where they announce that "due to lower wti prices in Q4, our fcf was impacted by ...." And the year goes by, we had great wti pricing for 8+ months, a narrowed WCS spread and the debt remains ...more  
Comment by ManitobaCanuck on Oct 25, 2024 8:41am
  They bought back 18 mill shares for 85mil and 18 mil in dividends=50%FCF . I expect about 200-210 mil FCF for quarter . Debt down by about 100mil .  
Comment by HeavyBanana on Oct 25, 2024 9:02am
Yup !
Comment by ManitobaCanuck on Oct 31, 2024 5:56pm
Post from last week projected my calculated FCF at 210mil . Actual FCF is 220mil .
Comment by AvInvestor on Oct 25, 2024 4:03pm
Hence if you read my last point, they should sell heavy oil assets to pay debt and focus on light oil!! Nevertheless, you shouldn't panic if q1/2 capex numbers were higher as they were investing in refrac tech. We should see better numbers q3 & q4
The Market Update
{{currentVideo.title}} {{currentVideo.relativeTime}}
< Previous bulletin
Next bulletin >

At the Bell logo
A daily snapshot of everything
from market open to close.

{{currentVideo.companyName}}
{{currentVideo.intervieweeName}}{{currentVideo.intervieweeTitle}}
< Previous
Next >
Dealroom for high-potential pre-IPO opportunities