Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

WTI avg. for October $71.99

[HeavyBanana]

Higher than the $70.24 printed for September so that's cool.

CAD for October averaged $0.7267 and September was $0.7381 and so far November has everaged $0.7167

E&D expenditure for Q4 is going to be the lowest out of all 4 quarters.

Production will be the highest of all 4 quarters.

Lower G&A, lower royalties and lower taxes also guided for Q4.

Going to be another stellar quarter report and I'll collect another $5,000 divvy installment in wait of the report.

[dllscwbysfn]

Well banana you might want to ask Baytex where their debt is today. Since the last earnings report the Cdn loonie has dropped by about .03 cents. Many people say this is good but I have memories of BTE telling us they didn't pay any debt due to the change in currency, just saying!

[HeavyBanana]

Net debt was reduced by 5% last quarter and net debt has been reduced by 12% over the last 4 quarters. I get it, you aren't happy with management and the stock performance relative to peer stock performance and I believe you said Q3 was going to be the test for you but you're still here even with your continued pessimism.  Maybe turn that pessimism slightly positive, debt is being

[dllscwbysfn]

Optics, come on.Contact them and find out where that debt is today. Reality. Positive thing is they buyback shares.

[jleer42]

They said they paid down USD debt, but the value in CAD did not change due to the change in FX (lower CAD vs USD exchange rate). If the FX rate stops falling this stops, if the CAD increases it reverses. Politically it will probably take another year before this changes, but it will eventually.

[dllscwbysfn]

But that is the whole point. If the loonie keeps dropping their debt in Cdn dollars simply keeps rising. Justins dad got the buck into the low 60's and the son is doing his best to get it there now. Canada is basicly in a recession and the USA seems pretty decent right now. Cdn buck is likely going lower. It will take the conservatives years to fix this.

[HeavyBanana]

As the CDN goes lower the USD debt is still being paid down and still going lower but the lower USD debt number when reflected in CDN makes it look like debt isn't budging because of that FX optics dynamic. Not hard to understand. Ask yourself, if Baytex reported in USD through and through, would you still erroneously say debt isn't being paid down and going lower?

[dllscwbysfn]

Its not hard to understand. You think its optics. If the cdn buck keeps going down the debt will keep going up, reality. It's commonly refered to as currency risk. Time to watch some football

[JohnnyDoe]

How much of the debt is in US versus Canadian dollars?   Bte needs to drive that debt lower. Meaningfully lower.  Look at the Fcf bar charts I posted. If you're leading the pack on fcf yield yet trailing the pack on stock appreciation, the market clearly doesn't like something. In BTE's case, that something is debt and the 50% shareholder returns compared to many

[HeavyBanana]

JohnnyDoe, how much influence do you think outstanding shares have on stock performance relative to peers, amongst other factors such as debt? Also, do you think it is better to have a position in a stock prior to a better value alignment being recognized or after? The former would indicate the chart you refer to is a helpful tool in making an investment decision relative to current stock price,

[JohnnyDoe]

Ordinarily yes I'd say that companies to the right on those fcf bar charts are where you'd want to be invested.  But bte has been one of the highest yielding companies for some time and it's not doing Jack for me and you as retail investors.  I own two companies that are at the bottom of the patch in terms of capital appreciation. In my case it's been depreciation. And

[HeavyBanana]

I see Baytex settling back over $5.00 fairly quickly after this tax loss positioning has fully settled and the same applies to Veren at its relative price point. I don't believe Baytex management is despised in institutional circles but certainly some vocal retail investors display disdain for them on chat forums. Baytex management made some adjustments in Q3 that had it come out a much

[dllscwbysfn]

And of course there are those that are perma bulls to the point where one might believe that they are a paid poster?!

[HeavyBanana]

A retail shmuck posting on a Stockhouse chat forum, a paid poster, lol? I guess in rebuttal I should question you as being a short? C'mon man, get off the chat forum play book. We're all just retail investors with differing opinions who frequent chat forums for the little guy. Some certainly think they can impact the Baytex market with their comments. Fools in my opinion considering the

[dllscwbysfn]

You took the first shot!!

[HeavyBanana]

First shot? Saying you are highly pessimistic and you despise Baytex management is what you consider a shot? It's an accurate observation. Good luck with your investment strategies my man. 

[IainCaimbeul]

Banana, stop answering that plug. I muted it couple years ago. Imagine basing an investment decision on the ramblings of it. Cheers. 

[dllscwbysfn]

My observations about you are equally accurate. Good luck to you as well!!

[dllscwbysfn]

And for me that ends this conversation. I will be fine with you making the last comment. Seriously GL!