Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

From Brian Ector today ........

[HeavyBanana]

"Hi xxxxxxxxx, for this discussion, let’s start with our FCF profile for 2025 - we expect to generate ~ $400 million of FCF at US$70 WTI and ~ $600 million at US$75 WTI. In both cases, there will be minimal FCF generated during the first quarter given our production and capex profile.

 

This is similar to what we experienced in 2024 when we generated no FCF in Q1/2024 but for the full-year 2024, should be ~ $600 million.  

 

Last year we paused our buyback program until the second quarter. This year, we intend to maintain a modest buyback program during the first quarter and then re-evaluate or adjust as we make our way through the year. Our current pace of buy backs for January is ~ $150K per day.

 

Regards,

Brian"



I highlighted the interesting points. Brian seems to have given a tell for FY24 fcf and also an understanding of buybacks currently being undertaken on a daily basis even if it is small in scope.

[HeavyBanana]

If Brians "tell" is on the mark then Q4 looks to have done just shy of $200 million fcf.

[Frank007]

What amazes me is how easy it is to trade this stock and make a buck ...made almost a thousand today ..will do the same tomorrow ...the u s market is closed so may be a little harder for liquidity ...the stinking yankies are manipulating the oil price every day and that is what I watch to scoop some cash ...it's a crime that I seem to be one of the few that seee. It .....lol

[Ztransformer]

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[Frank007]

You jealousy or just stupid ..!

[Ztransformer]

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[Ztransformer]

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[Brooklyn15]

Agreed!  Who cares Frank! 

[JohnnyDoe]

They've got 1.85 B in bank debt at roughly 8% interest chewing up 160 M a year  They're spending about 1.2B a year to generate the fcf  Forget what Brian says, do you think 400M fcf at 70 is a good situation for Baytex given it's debt and reserve life?  For every forecast that says 80+, there's one saying it's 60 something. In fact I just read one this morning

[HeavyBanana]

JohnnyDoe, I am 100% confident the stock will get to my exit price this year and that is really all that matters to me at the end of the day. Sounds like you don't think it will get to yours but you're still invested in it?  My question to Brian revolved around how much could be spent on buybacks in H1/25 if oil traded $70-75 for that period. He asnwered the way he did and I got a

[ManitobaCanuck]

What's your exit price ?

[HeavyBanana]

$6.50 later in the year. Obviously I could adjust based on what takes place with oil supplies but to me it's a very reachable target. I'm retiring this year and that is why $6.50 is good enough for me on Baytex.

[ManitobaCanuck]

  Thank you .Best of luck in your retirement and hope it's a satisfying one. I am 51 n contemplating early retirement too if this hits double digits . At 6.5 I will go part time for sure .  

[JohnnyDoe]

i already exited. 

[HeavyBanana]

A fine decision for you then considering your ongoing concerns about Baytex.

[cdnkeswick]

Thank you for sharing meaningfull information.Sure beats what others are posting lately.

[ManitobaCanuck]

  This is positive news , as debt falls ,interest payments reduce , FCF per share increases . Good news overall 

[dllscwbysfn]

Well this might be a little misleading when Brian says they generated no FCF in Q1 last year. If I remember correctly they ran at a loss of about 70M last year in Q1. So WTI prices will need to increase considerably to be equal to last year's Q1 in order to maintain a similar small loss. Also the company has already announced that production will be down in Q1 by about 2000/boe and now they

[HeavyBanana]

Do you recall the one time costs that helped bring Q1/24 into a small negative?

[dllscwbysfn]

No,  But I am sure you do. Why not discuss

[Ztransformer]

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[dllscwbysfn]

Usually when the name calling starts its a pretty good sign as to who is winning the debate. You guys are all perma bulls and simply hate when a person shows the other side of the argument. It's called an opinion, that's it. It's also called investing, your going to win some and your going to lose some. 

[Ztransformer]

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[dllscwbysfn]

Enjoy your sub 4 buck stock, lol.

[Ztransformer]

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