Canfor Pulp Products Inc T.CFX

MKT Well Below $300 Million?

[Fiberman]

This symbol continues to amaze. Less than $300million MKT cap. Pulp prices are coming off highs but are still well above historic averages. Prices will likely drop next year overall but today's price point all but locks up profit on Q4 and now Q1 shipments. Any heartbeat over the next 6 months should drive profits upwards. Can this symbol get any lower? $4.25? Unreal. Holding. Yet keep scratching my head. Would love to know who sells sub $4.50. Why?

[Nbsk]

likely tax-loss selling by retail into an illiquid small cap. who knows how low this can go with so few bid. i feel like i'm the whale here, gobbling thousands shares here and there (too early), but I already own enough shares to rank among the biggest institutions!! the important thing is to not forget the value is a lot different than the price.

[Fiberman]

I got in too early as well. Did not think it would get down here. Anyway, I am not selling. China Board is holding. Tissue steady. Paper is holding on. NBSK is not going below $800 net anytime soon. Prices will stay eleveated December and likely thru January. CFX beat last quarter. Chances are very high that they beat again Q4 & Q1. Yes. Price does not remotely reflect value on this one. 

[OmahaValue]

CFX is way undervalued (less than 2x normal EBITDA and $250/t-$300/t pulp capacity). Q4 should be a reasonably strong quarter with NBSK prices holding up, a strong US dollar, stabilizing operations and slowly improving rail car availability.  I would guess $50M+ of EBITDA in Q4.  If that is achieved, cash will start to accumulate. The Company should absolutely be considering share

[Nbsk]

China Nbsk futures bottomed early November:   https://www.shfe.com.cn/images/comb_SP.jpg   Prices for December and January now about $995.   Near the $1010 record, and that is with china covid restrictions.   

[kboorman]

Market just does not seem to care about this company, apparently even insiders don't care either as the last insider buy was in January 2021.. almost 2 years ago. Maybe they just forgot the company exists too. Would think at this market cap a strategic review would at least be a reasonable consideration. Either going private or being put up for sale. Back and fourth over what spot NBSK is at

[Nbsk]

Agreed. However, if nothing happens and it remains forgotten, then solid pulp prices will matters. The whole forward year prices are quite good on the shanghai futures. ( https://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/woodpulp/ ) Good sales lead to cash earnings, cash pile, and then dividends or buyback. Just the prior 0.25 dividend makes it a 5.5% yield and once operating normally they can do much better