Canfor Pulp Products Inc T.CFX

M&A coming hopefully good one! :)

[baldstock]

WEF sold two mills at 164M to Altas Holdings. WEF produced 141 MT in 2023. So ATLAS paid 0.85c/MT

 

CFX have three big mills and produced 600 Mt in 2023. so 0.85*600= 510 M enterprise value.

510M- 89(DEBT)= 421M

421M/66M(o/s)= $6.37

 

Only thing I am concern is CANFOR CORP low-ball on privatization and pay half of Book Value.

Which is $2.50.

 

Also MONDI GROUP wants to enter Canadian market. They already bought small pulp mill. I am sure they want to buy more to scale up and this is it. MONDI is multi billion dollar company and they won't just buy small mill and stop.

 

4 canadiates may interest on CFX

1. Mondi group. (PT $3~5)

2. Suzano (Failed merger attempt with IP) (PT: $3-5)

3. Canfor Corp (Low-ball buyout expecting due to history PT :$2~3)

4. Atlas group (maybe scaling up, PT: $2-3)

[Apaulson]

Good points. I think Canfor wants to get out of the pulp business like WFG.  It's too capital intensive and low return given the risk.  Leave it to Mercer, Paper Excellence, Mondi, Suzano and focus on the lumber side. I just think CFP will try to take over CFX before they sell any pulp assets to avoid any legal liability. Mainly because I think managment has mismanaged the company

[Nbsk]

Would you think Kruger could be a buyer ? Seems a natural for a nearby tissue paper producer