Post by
Muncher on Jan 13, 2023 9:52am
TD remains positive low chance of divy cut
Revenue and EBITDA exceeded our estimates in TV/radio/consolidated in Q1/23 (TV advertising revenue -11% y/y versus our -13% estimate). However, the results fell short of consensus and there is no visible light at the end of the advertising recession tunnel at this point, so many analysts and investors are likely to cite these results as the beginning of the end for this company. We would strongly disagree, and a simple look forward to fiscal 2024 (which starts in 7.5 months) should bring easier y/y comps, lower mandated Canadian content costs, and what we have always seen in the media/advertising business in every business cycle, which is a rapid recovery in ad spending post-recession. Then we could see favourable regulatory reforms kick in by fiscal 2025. Opportunistic long-term investors should sharpen their pencils and look for a great entry point between now and March 15. Why that date? Because the Board deferred declaration of the quarterly dividend owing to macro uncertainty, and they have until March 15 to declare the calendar Q1 payment. We see low odds of a dividend cut and we suspect that the company is just being prudent in allowing for a few more weeks of visibility on advertising demand trends before making the dividend decision. They did this before on April 1, 2020 (owing to initial pandemic uncertainty), and then ultimately declared the normal dividend on the last date allowed, which was June 9, 2020. Note that debt/ EBITDA increased in Q1/23 (3.38x versus 3.02x), but this was owing to the cyclicallydepressed EBITDA and not higher debt. Net debt was basically flat in the quarter at $1.344 billion versus $1.341 billion (with that small increase being $2 million in share buybacks). So unless we see another big step down in EBITDA in 2024, there should be no fear of reaching the debt covenant of 4.25x. Total revenue $431 million versus TD/consensus $428mm/$433mm. Total EBITDA $132 million versus TD/consensus $122mm/$135mm. Television EBITDA $132 million versus TD/consensus $122mm/$136mm). Adjusted EPS $0.17 versus TD/consensus $0.16/$0.25.
Comment by
Deuteronomy818 on Jan 13, 2023 12:06pm
Corus will be another media company to be scooped up on the cheap