Post by
bond46 on May 02, 2013 1:21pm
There will be massive investment in infrastructure
What the world economy is going through ritght now, is going to bode well for commodities in the future. The European economy with the tight monetary policy of Germany and the austerity obsession of Merkel will break down in view of easing of Japan and the drop of the value of the yen that will make Japanese products more competitive. Already the ECB lowered rates today by 25%points to the dismay of Frau Merkel. A rebound of the European economy will boost Chinese exports and will lower inflationary pressures in China allowing for more allocation of funds in infrastucture projects which usually cause inflation and hence more steel will be produced. At the same time a rebound of the European economy will have a multiplier effect on other economies, of India, latin America etc. In the United states, there will be massive investments in infrastructure projects which are aging and in view of the Congressional elections that will test the Ritht Wing majority in Congress. In short, Europe has an inflation rate 1.2% way below that of the US and the unemployment rate has hit 27% in some member states, like Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. Europe will face social unrest unless they ease monetary policy and get the economy moving again. So their strong currency will choke off their exports in view of Japan and the US competition and they have to ease and devalue their currency no matter what Merkel is saying. And the monetary easing we may see after the German elections in September. Of course this is an assessment of the macro economic conditions and we don't know if they have any effect on the life of CMk, we can only hope.