Post by
HAWK37 on Mar 29, 2015 2:34pm
Canexus Guidance for 2015
So, based on Ocean112's e-mail from yesterday (Ocean112 appears to be the unofficial spokesperson for Canexus, definitely an insider), Canexus is planning the following for 2015: 1. 2015E EBITDA of $91.5 million. Cash flow for the HCl business will decrease 20% to $21.5 million (that will help the sale of N Van). 2. NATO will have negative cash flow of $15 million in 2015 (who wouldn't pay $250 million for that business?). 3. Canexus has a $65 million capital program for 2015 which will be fully debt financed. 4. Canexus will end 2015 with $410 million in debt (not including the January dividend payment of $17 million). 5. Canexus will take its bank debt up to 4.5 times EBITDA, which will be at the limit of its covenants. What do they say about being in a hole? The first thing to do is to stop digging. Damn the torpedoes! RH
Comment by
Kherson on Mar 29, 2015 3:08pm
"NATO will have a negative cash flow of $15 million for 2015"? That is a big difference from Doug's comments at the Whistler Conference about Blunderheim being slightly cash flow positive! Kherson
Comment by
LegoGuy on Mar 31, 2015 3:55pm
They are obviously planning to take on more debt so it looks like this 'Unofficial Guidance' is true. Scary.
Comment by
HAWK37 on Apr 07, 2015 12:30am
With EBITDA of $92 million, at 8 times (very generous), the company is worth $736 million. With debt of $633 million ($616 mm + the January dividend), the equity is worth $103 million, or 55 cents a share. At that price, it yields 7.3 % (with a 4 cent dividend) which is about right. Lots of downside.
Comment by
Kherson on Apr 07, 2015 2:52pm
The big question concerning EBITDA is again, Blunderheim... Kherson
Comment by
roniejames on Apr 07, 2015 3:29pm
The big question this board wants to know is how much money did you make after selling Canexus and putting all your cash in PLT.UN at $5.00 eh Kherson ? You seem to be very knowledgeable