Cenovus Energy Inc T.CVE

Wood River and Borger

[Margin321]

If Phillips becomes an even more motivated seller of their 50% ownership in these two refineries, then the price may become compelling. CVE would certainly like to operate these refineries, rather than have a brand new operating partner step in.  On the other hand the extra debt would certainly slow the path to $4 Billon net debt and 100% shareholder return of excess cash. That uncertainty (and several delays to get there already) are hurting the share price.  But at a certain price buying out Phillips and taking control of those two refineries becomes a massive opportunity. It is all about the price. Cenovus has  non-core assets the could sell including the Asian gas operations (that have very good free cash flow) and everything off shore on east coast of Canada - none of which is really core though they offer growth potential and future profits. The off shore assets may not bring full price right now either, but the Asian natural gas operations should be easy to monetize at good price.

[Ocalaman]

I think the market has been thinking this for a while now because if it does come to pass there will definately be a new share issue along with a debt issue to deal with. This is still a premium company with compelling metrics but shareholders are in a pay me now mode. I think management knows this full well and are balancing the increased share count and debt issue with a longer runway to

[Margin321]

Agree depressed share price could (and should) be a roadblock to additional share dilution.  Especially since they have bought in a lot of shares at a substantially higher price. That is the worse - to buy in high priced shares and then soon after dilute with low priced shares.

[meritmat]

buy it with debt then increase div by 25%.  Win win 

[downwithdotcom1]

anything is possible BUT it was the CEO on behalf of management/BOD that committed to this $4 bill net debt-100% FCF return of capital to shareholders. THEY SAID IT and thus the market EXPECTS THEM TO DO IT..The shareprice has already suffered more than its peers due to (among other things) AI inspired program trading feasting on this delay...my opinion ..dwdc

[Cabarete1]

The do have the 'oppertunistic aquisition' excuse, and if the price is right, then it's valid.   Short term pain, vs long term gain.    I say go for it with debt, not stock, and increase the div.  They will be able to pay it off within years, not decades, and with this out of the way, there's not really any other oppporutites out there.  MArket will

[Quintessential1]

"I imainge it's a big game of chicken as both sides know it." Which begs the question, who is going to buy it if CVE doesn't? What price would be paid for a partnership in a refinery and so why whould CVE pay a higher price than anyone else would? I say call their bluff and wait.  Get to the debt target unscathed just to prove to the market they can do it then start