Speculation yes, but you can't discount the events of late. Someone smart is beating the share price down and accumulating. Over 30M shares traded in the past month on the TSX and another 7M on Nasdaq. That's 37M shares, practically the complete float.
Suddenly today, effective immediately, CXR adopts a change to make it more difficult to get people elected to the board. Why the sudden need? Do you smell a hostile takeover? But who? Who knows this business (AMCo) better than anyone?
Is it possible that Cinven Hedge Fund could reverse the tables on CXR. Next week, they will receive 8.49M (20% of total) shares and billions in cash from CXR. Have they been accumulating? They don't need to own a majority, 35-40% will do. Then, they only need to convince 10-15% of the spooked shareholders to get that majority. They need to convince some retail shareholders like you and me that, let's say, $55.00 USD is much better then 32.00 USD.
They also need to split the power at the board to recommend shareholders to accept. I believe, Mark mentioned in the Conference Call that Cinven is getting two seats on the board. Now, effective immediately, Mark is scrambling to make changes and put some stops into the process.
I have no indication that this is happening, however with these recent events you can't ignore the possibility that something is happening. Yes, It could be another hedge fund like Bill Ackman's or a Pharma company or nothing at all.
But imagine this, Cinven sells AMCo, then they get it all back, plus the rest of CXR for less, with the money and shares that CXR paid. Wow!
Brilliant!!!