Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

OHHHH DEAR.... TD JUST CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY

[CYBERPUNK]

PT is $20.00

Get ready for a Fugly Day Today!

[sunshine7]

That is US$20.

[visionaryfool]

Which is now in line with the other Analysts of ~$25 to $35 CAD.

[Beckysboss]

Fundamentals changed very little in the TD report,  they are just reacting to the share price changes in the market ... moved EBITDA from $678m to $645m in 2017- sales to $1024m from $1055m .   Net change of about 5%,  think most are expecting that with the move in currency regarding Brexit.   With a U.S $14+ share price probably thought the old number was

[wallop13]

I agree. The way they justified the target was kind of funny though. 6.5X 2017 EBITDA. Like really??? PRGO trades at 13X. Like WTF. Even if we lost all Nilandron & Donnatal income we would still only be trading at 7.8x. You could justify any target this way.

[sunshine7]

Interesting that they (he) believes 2Q results will be met but much of the concern is forward, some real, some unknown or imagined. FX due to Brexit is real but no mention of GBP debt hedge. Ongoing strategic review he sees as a negative as well as the future of Donnatal. These things will become knowns in coming months. Does anyone believe that management would double the Donnatal sales

[CNInvesting]

Why couldn't the management be wrong about that decision ? You think it's impossible for them to mess things up...well.

[CYBERPUNK]

Maybe they were increasing Donnatal sales force to extract as much profit as they could before DESI hearing. They recently increased sales force of Nilandron according to RBC Script Report -  and we find out last week that a generic was launched by competitor to compete with Nilandron's sole drug status.  And PR yesterday on Nilandron stated CVS drop "not material,"  .

[CNInvesting]

Of course it was material and thanks for pointing to the RBC Script report. They increased the sales force, to increase sales on Nilandron, a product that's been called ''too expensive'' for CVS. I don't know how profitable that move will be in the end. What we do know is that ANI Pharmaceuticals launched a generic of Nilandron and it will be less expensive so...Also, yes

[select1011]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[CNInvesting]

Also of note is that I don't know who the heck that extra sales team will try to sell Nilandron when CVS has officially bared them saying : “CVS Health is taking a stand against egregious drug price increases that unnecessarily add costs for clients and their members,” the PBM said.'' Why would any other retailer buy this product, for instance ExpressScript, if their competitor is

[Beckysboss]

 Fudster,  maybe CVS dropped it because it didn't sell thru their chain... immaterial to both Concordia and CVS... duhhhhh.....you can twist, turn and spin it ,  the retail shorts are setting up to get burned. CVS Health confirmed this week that Nilandron®, Concordia's treatment for metastatic prostate cancer, and Dutoprol®, a treatment for high blood pressure

[CNInvesting]

This is from their March 2016 Annual Information Form: Concordia North America, operating through its Barbados office, sells substantially all of its pharmaceutical products directly to three major wholesalers in the United States, who combined account for approximately 95% of Concordia North America’s total sales through wholesalers and approximately 80% of the operating segment’s total revenue.

[visionaryfool]

Thanks for posting this... actually interesting information. Not sure I get the connection between Red Oak and Concordia's stuff. Red Oak is for generic sourcing so it wouldn't distribute Nilandron. Red Oak would distribute their generic competition. We don't know what Cardinal Health's distribution are for Nilandron but one might suspect Cardinal might switch to the generic form.

[CNInvesting]

Yes exactly, Nilandron will most likely be replaced by the generic and CVS Caremark will sell it to its clients. I'd be surprised if CXR didn't sell any Nilandron, like they claim, via Cardinal's distribution to CVS since they mentionned that they sell a lot to Cardinal Specialty and Nilandron was 10% of their NA sales in FY2015. Anyways.

[CYBERPUNK]

CN investing, The other PBM's will be publishing their exclusion lists..  I found this on why CVS axed it https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/cvs-health-bars-valeant-concordia-drugs-for-egregious-price-hikes-and-it-s-lookout-for-more

[CNInvesting]

Yeah i don't know that any other distributor will exclude Nilandron but I'm wondering why they wouldn't since a generic is coming on the market at a cheaper price. Don't forget that there aren't many huge wholesalers in the US. Cardinal Health is one of them. Concordia North America, operating through its Barbados office, sells substantially all of its pharmaceutical products

[visionaryfool]

Article states" Concordia saw two drugs nixed from the CVS list: Its Nilandron treatment for prostate cancer, which it acquired in its $3.5 billion deal for Amdipharm Mercury last year; and Dutoprol, a combination med for high blood pressure. Thought Nilandron and Dutoprol were Covis drugs......

[Steve911]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[visionaryfool]

Not sure if you read the news release but it pretty much says "F*** CVS" given they don't do any volumes with them anyways. This, IMHO, was CVS's way to show some progress to customers but the impact will be from other drugs, not these ones. Also, not all pharmacy's are treated the same. Pricing is dynamic so it could very well be that Express / others might get a better

[CNInvesting]

Do you know how it reimbursements work in the US ? A retailer of drugs, CVS for instance, can sell a product and not be covering it. If it's not included in Medicaid or Medicare, governments programs, it will be expensive, but some folks need it anyway and will try to get it covered with their private insurances. CVS removed it because new alternatives are coming out at a cheaper price. That

[select1011]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[bull_man]

this is a perfect example that analysts don't have a fcking clue what they are doing; absolutely nothing "fundamentally" has changed since the last earnings release, in fact they have even eased shareholder fears twice, with brexit and this past week once again - no profit warnings or guidance revisions (this would have been in this week's corporate update if any); and we are

[CYBERPUNK]

Didn't Brexocalypse happen since last earnings and all those Financial Times articles on AMCo price gouging ...  and the Donnatal DESI regulatory risk was not known then either...  and some other stuff too happened to ....