Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Concordia Going Forward

[ryehigh2014]

I think if they can stabilize the business - have a positive Q3/2014 report with a positive Q4 report. It will be smooth sailing. 

The company should be buying back shares at this level. This will effectively filter out weak longs and solidify long term shareholder value. 

Liquidity remains strong and I expect GBPUSD strength to improve the portfolio.

[Marky1]

Ryehigh and everyone else here...Communicate via email or phone with the company...Please tell them to buy back shares! Good for them...good for the us!!

[ryehigh2014]

To be very honest good for us. But at the moment they should focus on establishing shareholder confidence which is key.

[cg16]

Thx Rye for ur analysis. I can't see (due to adverts) alot of the info on the raw info. Can you tell me what ebitda and Adj EPS you expect in Q3 and Q4?  Thanks 

[CounterAttack]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[rad10]

Q3 2014 - i am sure it was great.  Good job Rye high....................

[ryehigh2014]

sorry i meant Q3/2016. Atleast post numbers instead of random condescending comments. You shorts seem to be full of hot air. And there are too many weak longs out there. I've actually ran the numbers - digested the deck as I said I would. The only risk that seems to exist is hocus pocus. The issue most managers are having is they cannot model the business (its only ~4Y old and has grown

[Marky1]

I agree with you Rye...I would take RBC values more seriously than CIBC......

[Craigbad]

They arrive at these numbers due to most of the multiple they use to calculate the equities worth being eaten up by debt. The debt to ebitda is conservatively 7 right now. This is where the slippery slope comes in. Because the balance sheet is horrible, at best the company will pay interest and pay down debt for the forseeable future and will therefore get a multiple at the low end of the scale

[ryehigh2014]

Hi Craig I forecasted Proformas for Q3 and Q4 and then 5Y forward. The company does seem alot healthier with the 350MM.  They will end off with 2.4Bn Outstanding at this rate. The real question is will they be able to refinance. Everything points to a yes based on the private placement. But real question is Q3 actuals - the market is pricing in something and it makes sense to pay attention

[Lumberfeverlong]

Rye, what do you think the market reaction will be  if the company announces Adjusted EBITDA of $110 to $120m of for Q3? That would be on the low end of their revised guidance and would result in additional cash accumulation of approximately $40 to $50M bringing their available cash comfortably above $500M. I estimate somewhere in the neighbourhood of $530. 

[ryehigh2014]

Hi Lumber, To be very honest I would avoid EBITDA and examine FCF and Levered FCF very closely and intently. The shorts were spot on PRIOR to the debt issuance. Concordia had severe liquidity issues which they have now managed.  I also do not like Adj Ebitda - its a non GAAP and non traditional number. In terms of EBITDA (less Impairment) I come out to 451MM for the year and

[DanKwong1958]

ryehigh, I am not an accountant.  Do numbers say they likely reduce guidance?