Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Here is why.

[meetoo1600]

There is a truckload of administration involved, formalizing the votes, agreeing on the form and content of the fairness opinion, the draft court order, etc, etc...

The average time for a plan of arrangement under the CBCA to be completed is 78 days from the date of the initial filing.

My opinion is that, with the unsecured (and possibly a little of the lower ranked secured) debt gone, the value of CXR jumps to at least $2B, and goes possibly as high as $2.5B.  It's just financial arithmetic using conservative multiples applied to very baseline performance.  Now, let's say the debt gets 80% of the company, although, in my view, the percentage will not be that high.  That would require that they issue approximately 200,000,000 new shares, for a total of about 250,000,000.  That puts the value per share at something between $8 and $10.  Even if they gave 90% to the debt, it would still be between $4 and $5.  I do not think that it will be anywhere near that bad.

My assumption is no more material write-downs of goodwill.  It's not a stupid assumption,  They have been aggressive in that department already, and for good reason.  It would be completely foolish to go through this if right after you are going to be forced to continue writing down the company's assets.  To the extent that there could be any more write-downs, they will be priced into the deal.  Those representing the debt are not idiots.

None of this will help old time, legacy holders of the stock, people who bought when it was flying a year or two ago, if there are still any.  But if you bought in at the recent lows, you are in for a good result.

I have been waiting months for this.  I thought it would happen sooner.

[rad10]

Meetoo - its a nice idea and I respect you for putting forward an obviously considered opinion. This is why you are wrong on several counts..... 1 - ad hoc debt committees for both secured and unsecured have been in discussion with the company for several months prior to the CBCA announcement 2 - do you honestly think the unsecured debt holders are going to take so much of a haircut that a 10

[meetoo1600]

No unsecured debtholder will be taking any haircut.  All of the current ones purchased their positions for cents on the dollar.  Still, to protect however little they paid, they have to ensure that CXR does not fall to the senior secured creditors.  They have to fear this just as much as the common shareholders do.  Everyone below senior secured debt gets wiped out if that debt

[Iattice]

I just want to weigh in on one of your comments.  It is my understanding that with this arrangement, an equity vote "is not necessarily required, but cannot be summarily dispensed with either" as per the Insolvency Institute.  But you are probably correct in your statement that they have enough institutional holders on side - otherwise I think they would have filed under CCAA.

[meetoo1600]

The statute is flexible enough that the court has the discretion, theoretically, to do whatever it wants.  But in practice, a court would never wipe out the interest of any class without hearing from them and understanding their position after a poll, irrespective of where they stand in the hierarchy of debt and equity. My theory as to why we have seen virtually no institution trading in the

[rad10]

Of course they are taking a haircut - you state all the debt was turned over at cents on the dollar - and then the next paragraph you state the same debt is illiquid.........................  so which is it? I think you are underestimating bond holders.  Unsecured debentureholders held yellow media to ransom in 2012 with delaying of a recapitalisation through improved terms and

[meetoo1600]

I can't see your November 20th as a date of default. The only possible default is the expiry of the 30 day period.  Nothing else is due, and, even if it were, the court filing has the effect of neutralizing all defaults pending a determination, If the only thing that triggers a default of the secured debt is the cross-default provisions, under which a default in relation to the