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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

TSX:CXR.R - Post Discussion

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Post by S2hadi90 on Mar 10, 2018 6:01pm

To Meetoo

Meetoo, on Jan. 9, you stated the following, after I posted a link from Simple Wall Street that showed that CXR about right price is $10. By the way, they have now reduced the "about price" price to $5. You replied:

"This is what I believe, and basically for the same reason, but CXR needs a successful financial restructuring deal to make it happen.


It will all depend on the percentage of the company that the current common shareholders retain, post restructuring.  If it is 15% or more, the share price could see $10 fairly quickly.

My math goes something like this. Value of the company: $3,500,000,000 = 10 x $350,000,000 cash flow.  The 10 multiple is less than industry average.  For common shareholders to retain 15%, need to issue 290,586,667 new shares, for a total of 341,866,667.  $3,500,000,000 / 341,866,667 = $10.24.  It might take a little while post-restructuring for the value to be realized in the form of market cap.

For me to be happy, I don't require the deal to be anywhere near that good, but I understand what they are saying.
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#WsryWbPrq0ggqevZ.99"



my question to you is, what will happen if current common shareholders retain less than 15%? They won't be "completely wiped out," and with time they can regain their value, no?  

I see dilution as a temporary thing, if your horizon is long-term, then we can wait it out, no? 

Please enlighten me, anybody. 
Comment by meetoo1600 on Mar 10, 2018 6:35pm
What happened to change my opinion is that the company's reported cash flow is dropping precipitously.  In the last quarterly before I wrote that comment, they were showing approximately $350,000,000 annualized cash flow.  This was enough to service the secured debt with some left over.  As of the most recent report, that number was reduced to approximately $284,000,000 ...more  
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