ECN Capital Corp T.ECN

TD

[retiredcf]

Their target is $5.50. GLTA

ECN Capital Corp.

(ECN-T) C$3.30

Q4/22: EPS Miss - Elev. Exp.; Materially Lower 2023 EPS Guidance Event

ECN reported Q4/22 adjusted operating EPS from continuing operations of $0.02, up from nil last year, but below our $0.03 estimate (consensus: $0.036). Reported EPS from continuing operations was a $0.03 loss, with the difference relative to adjusted EPS being stock-based compensation, amortization of intangibles, and a $3.0mm charge related to asset disposal and litigation costs (legacy businesses).

In light of the recently announced strategic review, the quarterly results may not be as meaningful as they otherwise would be. The company did not host its usual conference call.

Impact: NEGATIVE

Management materially lowered its 2023 EPS targets (down ~27-28%). Our estimates were at the bottom end of the previous guidance range prior to the strategic review announcement made a couple of weeks ago, and we significantly lowered our estimates heading into the quarter. Today, we have further reduced our 2023E EPS to the bottom of the revised guidance range ($0.18-$0.22; assumes no further M&A). We believe this is prudent, given the elevated expense level and a more challenging macro environment.

The EPS miss was largely related to much higher-than-expected expenses across segments. RV&M expenses were elevated, reflecting continued investments to build out the platform. Current quarter-to-date expenses in the segment are in line with Q4 levels. In Q1/23, the Board approved an expense-reduction plan aimed at reducing corporate operating expenses, business segment expenses, interest, and depreciation expense by an annualized $10mm-$13mm (~50/50 between corporate & business segments and interest & depreciation), to be fully implemented by the end of Q2/23E.

TD Investment Conclusion

The company is undergoing a review of a full range of strategic alternatives in response to interest received in order to maximize shareholder value. This includes continuing its tuck-in acquisition strategy to a potential takeout offer. While a takeout may provide meaningful value for shareholders, there is significant uncertainty as to the nature, timing, and value of the operating segments, as well as the evolving macro backdrop. Our target price implies upside of 68%. We continue to rate the stock BUY.

[retiredcf]

I wonder if any potential takeout candidate waited for the knife to hit the floor this morning and is now snapping up shares. GLTA

[Smallcap123123]

It's hard to tell - I don't see how they could sell right now for over 4.5-5.00 based on 20 cents eps and doubt management will be inclined at those levels.  I think we need to hold tight for '24. The macro environment isn't great for a sale right now. Having said that, I'm sure some toe holds are being placed