Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Sell... now if...

[mercedesman]

...you believe, as the market seems to believe (based on the current SP) , that there is almost ZERO (lets call it 2%) probablity of approval of PMX by the FDA.

This despite:

• Phase 3B Trial being labelled "confirmatory" meaning they just have to reach the "meh" goals of Euphrates, but now armed with much better data and selection criteria.
• indications from Mgt that the Tigris Trial, so far, is "exceeding expectations".
• Favourable Trial paramaters granted by the FDA (Open label, Bayesian, 2:1)
• likely far greater need now (Covid leads to Sepsis - see gut dysbiosis and endotoxemia in advanced/severe Covid patients)
• 300,000 safe uses world-wide
• Meta analysis data with 10's of thousands of participants supporting a PMX mortality benefit. 
• Euphas 2 (early Trial stoppage for efficacy reasons)
• Euphas Registry ( closing in on another decade of gathered evidence and proof)
• PMX being supported by Ronco as a Golden Hour sequential therapy.  (Ronco is likley the world's leading authority on Sepsis, and AKI)
• Kellum joins Spectral in 2021 (jettisoning all other ties with other co's including HP co's) Loads up on options and shares all above .425
• mounting RWE evidence in support of PMX, and not just for Sepsis
• it is backed by a multi billion dollar Japanese congolmerate
• it has a distribution agreement with a multi-billion dollar Company that owns the ICU supply market.

And also sell, if despite all of the above, you believe that all of the following assets/pieces are totally worthless  to other market players as well:

• Dialco = virtually worthless.  Even though it is likely (it's a question of when not if - per Seto)  to be the 3rd or 4th entrant in the about to greatly expand, HD market, with Diaco's entrant, offering "ground breaking" new technology
• never mind that the first two entrants into the HD market, have captured a market cap of $ 2B USD for their Home Dialysis machine only
• never mind that DIMI will smash most if not all barriers to adoption that the competition does not.
• the FDA approved EAA is worthless despite its utility (at the very least) as a ICU triage tool to rule out Sepsis. And with worldwide exclusive rights to boot.
• $ 80 million in past Trial costs, and acquired IP has no utility to other biotechs  (e.g. even just as a a tax loss shelter)
• That they have valueless world wide & patented rights to the only HP pump on the market (SAMI) = utility for the Golden Hour sequntial therapy approach advocated by Ronco

MM

[oilandgasman]

If only they could sell the story, it's truely not their forte or have zero interest in the will of shareholders.

[Domino55]

Is the valuation back up to a 2% probability of success? That is 50% higher than my own calculation. I'll go with yours. All salient points but as you know, no one capitalizes on their perceived shortcomings better.

[mercedesman]

I'm using a conservative valuation, and a valuation before factoring in the future Covid patients PMX revenue upside ;) .23 x X = 2% Solving for X X = .23/2% = $ 11.50 this is also an overly simplified, conservative equation, becasue the "failure" outcome is not = $0 for a two trick (actually really a 4- trick) pony. MM

[Domino55]

Would it be asking too much that the company strive to value itself at a 10% probability of P3 success. Is that too long a stretch?

[Accountprince]

Dom - apparently it is asking too much of the company to strive to reach 10% of success value.  An issue done last year at 5% and one this year at 4%.  And according to Oilandgasman full disclosure by Seto recently on issue numbers to retail and to institutional - they know precisely who owns what.  Yet no comment when the price drops to less than 2%.  

[Domino55]

A 10% valuation is a sizeable request given that it is a 5 bagger from here but it does still leave them a 90% probability of failure in the valuation to do whatever it is they do with it. At this late stage it is only fair to ask.

[Revten]

Hey MM I am still loading up pretty much Daily! Every time I ask myself where can I probably quadruple my money in the next 6-12 months? And guess what keeps coming up? The Complete List of reasons that you just posted! Its Insane how Great An Opportunity This Truly Is! For some reason I also keep noticing that Box that says "Significant Shareholder" when placing my Trades.... might