Frontera Energy Corp T.FEC

New here, here's my take. Sonoffergus, I know you are

[CrazyTrader]

watching me, this is the company I'm talking about.  Ok... My take on the Tender and some possible outcomes.....    

Purchase Price $12 Can. 
Puchase amount $40,500,000 Can. 
Acceptance until Oct 17th. 
Maximum share to be purchased 3,375,000 shares.  
84,188,756 shares outstanding.   
Catalyst and Gramercy own respectively 34,775,609  shares and 11,300,032 shares. 
Officers own 246,569 shares.  
Pro-rated is over surcribed the 3,375,000.  

Basically this is the info that I understand.  

Ok, outcomes:   

Catalyst and Gramercy tender all their shares along with officers for total = 34,775,609 + 11,300,032 + 246,569 =  46,322,210 shares  !   this is way over the Maximum.    

If no one else tenders, will get 100% of the 3,375,000 at $12.   

If you have 50,000 shares and tender... now the total shares tendered is 46,322,210 + 50,000 = 46,372,210 shares.  

Your pro-rated % share will be  50,000/46,372,210= 0.00107 = 0.1% 
0.1% of 3,375,000 = 363 whole shares.

So, out of 50,000 shares that you own, only 363 shares will be taken up.   I think this is the best senerio.   Your % just goes lower as others tender also.  

So, it's basically pointless if they tender all their shares unless you own millions of shares.   


Now the Totally opposite outcome.....

Catalyst and Gramercy tender no shares and only officer tender their 246,569 and you tender your 50,000 shares for total 296,569 shares tendered.  

Your pro-rated % = 50,000/296,569x100 = 16.859%
16.859% of 3,375,00 = much more than 50,000 so all of your 50,000 shares will be taken for $12.  


JUST CRAZY.... 

Ok so what is more likely, C&G will tender ALL or NONE of their shares????     Crazy Crazy Crazy.  

Also crazy, is the $12 and how regulatory bodies are allowing this.  Why not $18, $25, $30/share????
How about $100/share?  If this sounds crazy, then how is $12 justified?

[Frank007]

The way I see it ...it just designed to reduce the share count ......I,m sure the farm in.   Is happening ....so this should be a ten bagger when announced ....they have been trying to buy and have bought some shares in the last year but from what I can see  ...bmo was just wash trading the shares with cibc and annonymous to get some people out ....that's my take ...and hence the

[CrazyTrader]

If total shares held by all the officers of the company is 247,569, that's pretty sad.  Then they intend to tender them?    This doesn't instill confidence with me about the company.   But I'm going put my 2 cents in and play and tender, just to see what happens, good learning experience.

[Frank007]

That's the idea ...this not supossed to instil confidence in you it is meant to get you to bump your shares in this offering ...lol

[CrazyTrader]

Well, we will soon find out if it's wise to invest in Frontera or not.   For me: If C&G and officers tender ALL their shares = Stay away and sell any shares I might have. If C&G tender no shares = Possible BUY if i haven't found anything better to buy.  

[kcac1]

Well, the SIB was to repurchase almost 4 million shares and ten months into the program, far less than half that number have been repurchased. I doubt BMO actively manages their purchases to try and maximize share price. More likely, just randomly buy far less than authorized with little regard to timing and price. When you have invisable company, that does nothing to promote itself or share price

[a2bman]

kcac you cant use ncib to maximize share price, lots of rules, first one... you can only buy on downtick

[CrazyTrader]

I still don't understand this Pro Rata.... Going back to my very first post and example and applying what I think they did for the Pro Rata, it doesn't make sense applying to my example. Ok, this is what I think how they got their Pro Rata of 4.35%   3,375,000 / 77,565,602 = 0.0434  = 4.35% Ok, now apply to my example of 46,372,210 tendered.   Using their Pro

[CrazyTrader]

oh wait the 99.89% is on 3,375,000  = 3,371,287 3,371,287 + 363 = 3,371,650...      Ya, it works also. BOTH works.   Clearly the company method benefits smaller holders.

[CrazyTrader]

I see my mistake   "Your pro-rated % share will be  50,000/46,372,210= 0.00107 = 0.1%  0.1% of 3,375,000 = 363 whole shares." 50,000/46,372,210x3,375,000 = 3639 shares   NOT 363 shares.   Why why why didn't anyone pick this up.....   Darn it, I would have bought more.    Factor of 10 off.....  Anyways, everyone