Suggests Q2 FactSet Forecasts Achievable
We track global web traffic to e-commerce, payment processing and other
industry-specific websites. These trends are based on ~90 of the larger
forum websites owned by VerticalScope that span automotive, powersports
and others. Our aim is to provide unique and directional insight to investors
based on these underlying traffic trends. This is our 60th Blog of the series.
Key Points
This week’s blog reveals that trends across the forum websites we track for
VerticalScope continue to gain momentum in Q2. This, combined with
stronger monetization rates from rising video ads and an improved U.S.
digital advertising market, suggest that Q2 FactSet forecasts for
VerticalScope are achievable.
Web traffic to the aggregate VerticalScope domains CIBC tracks have
strengthened to 49% Y/Y growth (vs. 32% in Q1 and 16% in Q4). Data for
the quarter is up to and including June 28. Note that our web traffic data has
been directionally on point since Q4/22 (for digital advertising) and Q2/23 (for
e-commerce).
In addition, this improvement is due in part to a rebound from the drag
caused by the Q1/23 Google search algorithm update that resulted in
aggregate web traffic plummeting by -26% in Q1/23 and -23% in Q2/23.
A second algorithm update implemented in March 2024, in addition to the
“Forum” filter roll-out, are also likely contributing to the elevated traffic trends
of this quarter. Both changes result in higher search result rankings for
forum-based websites due to their user-generated content, which Google
perceives to be more useful and authentic than AI-generated content.
It’s worth noting that on an absolute basis, web traffic volume to digital
advertising forums in Q2 is improving even off of a normalized base. Indeed,
digital advertising web traffic this quarter is 164MM; up from 159MM last
quarter and 148MM in Q4/23, indicating that traffic is not only recuperating
from the detrimental impact of the 2023 algorithm update, but also benefitting
from this year’s updates to Google’s search rankings and filters.
The continued improvement in aggregate web traffic trends so far into Q2
indicate that VerticalScope is likely to meet, and perhaps even exceed
FactSet expectations. In Q2, FactSet forecasts relatively flat Y/Y growth in
digital advertising revenues at 25% (vs. 26% last quarter). FactSet projects
that VerticalScope will report Q2 results on August 6.
Additional catalysts that could further contribute to revenue growth include:
1) higher video ad adoption and ARPU; 2) increased mobile app use; 3)
faster debt repayment; 4) M&A; 5) peer results; 5) a GEN-AI data licensing
contract; and 6) further benefits from Google’s March algorithm update.
Strong Web Traffic Momentum Positions VerticalScope Well
SimilarWeb provides CIBC with access to web traffic patterns which provide useful insights
on how certain web domains are performing. This data allows us to compare the Y/Y change
in daily web traffic to various websites since 2020. Although the data does not report the
conversion of web traffic into a transaction, in our view, it serves as a good proxy for
understanding social media usage within the digital advertising space. We track data for ~90
forums owned by VerticalScope across numerous verticals.
The heatmap in Exhibit 1 shows the Y/Y web traffic growth rates across quarterly and
monthly periods for the aggregate VerticalScope domains we track, listed by industry. It also
includes Y/Y revenue growth for the company and web traffic trends for its peers.
The strong Q2 momentum across VerticalScope’s forums extends to two of its three largest
industries. Collectively, all three industries represent ~60% of the company’s overall revenue.
The two industries with strong trends include automotive forums (up 57% so far in Q2 vs.
40% in Q1) and outdoor forums (64% vs. 30% Q1). Meanwhile, powersport forums have
decelerated slightly to 48% (vs. 55% Q1) due to a significant decline in traffic to tractor.com.
Conclusion
These web traffic trends for VerticalScope provide a view into how the company may fare
during a particular quarter. For Q2, these data points suggest that FactSet expectations for
digital advertising revenue are achievable.