Financial 15 Split Corp T.FTN

Larger commercial loan losses expected for CAD banks

[mouserman]

The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, Feb. 26, edition that analysts predict that Canada's major banks will report larger losses from commercial real estate loans in their first quarter earnings. The Globe's Stefanie Marotta writes that many analyst have cut their estimates -- extending a trend seen throughout 2023. Earnings are expected to drop as much as 12 per cent year over year, pressed by dampened loan demand and higher loan loss reserves. In January, U.S. regional bank New York Community Bancorp slashed its dividend and stockpiled reserves, citing concerns with commercial real estate loans. CIBC analyst Paul Holden said in a note to clients: "The recent turmoil with New York Community Bancorp serves as a stark reminder that we have not moved past the potential for elevated credit losses. ... Commercial real estate (CRE) of course will be in focus for the Canadian banks, and we expect that there should be higher provisions for CRE loan exposure." Exposure to commercial real estate at Canada's largest banks ranges from 7 per cent of the total loan book at National Bank of Canada to 12 per cent at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, according to research from Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman.

[NoShoesNoShirt]

This would be bad news.  2 questions for anyone to answer.....is this news already priced in? and is it inevitable that the banks will drop in proportion to their dropping earnings?

[rixpix]

I really believe this is priced in and the stocks are trading accordingly. Surprises and something unexpected is what realy drives a stock up or down. What we're reading or hearing now is something that the market has already anticipated and the shares prices reflect this. All IMHO. GL