Gran Tierra Energy Ord Shs T.GTE

gte

[baranja]

If I understand this stock:
1)  They sell their oil for Brent prices.
2) They produce about 30K Bpd and they are almost fully liquid/oil
3) They made some dumb hedges last year, 11 K bpd for $35 and 7K bpd for about $45. those are horrible but they still planed for great 2021. those hedges are expiring in 2 months anyway, so in June, there will be huge difference with hedging on bigger prices.
4) their total debt is 800 M but only 200 M is due for 2022, and with this price of Brent, it will be easy to pay it off. and after that, it is all clear sky until 2025
5) current Brent is $65 but Goldman is calling $80 in next 6 months (possible more).

Current market cap is 300 M. I think this one can be very explosive in the near feature.

Am I missing somehing here?

[Luckyeleven]

What you are missing is terrible mamanagement team with horrid execution over the years. They have always over promised and underdelivered. Saying that. csn this chage, maybe but the market doesn't trust these guys with their track record. 

[morsel]

In the midst of the crude collapse last spring, I'm sure GTE's bankers required them to secure some guaranteed income no matter what price.  Despite bad hedges, I'm interested to see if they continue to cut losses and  generate a positive balance sheet in Q1.  They have to do that before they become "very explosive". Usually, the price rises coming into the Q

[Luckyeleven]

The problem is there is no shorts to speak of less than 1% of the float so it's buyers that are needed. 

[baranja]

Those two hedges are over in two months so in June they can re-hedge those 18 K bpd at close to $70, most likely,.. that is almost double. plus having extra 12 K bpd sold for maket value is oil goes to 80 helps too. Q1 and Q3 will be huge difference. In february we had a run from 80 cents to 1.4 and the situations was much better nowdays.,so this has some dry poweder  The only thing is 200