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If a deal is reached between Iran and the world powers, it will pave the way for the lifting of the U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports, potentially easing an expected deficit on the market when the EU embargo on Russian seaborne imports enters into full force early next year. If a deal is agreed upon, oil prices could plunge to $80 per barrel, analysts have said.
Iran can relatively quickly ramp up its oil production and exports in case sanctions on its oil industry are lifted, the Energy Intelligence Research & Advisory unit said this week.
If a deal is reached this month, under Energy Intelligence's "Breakthrough" scenario, Iranian production could rise to nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year from just over 2.5 million bpd now, and further rise to 3.7 million bpd by June 2023, Energy Intelligence Research & Advisory said. Under this scenario, Iranian exports could rise to between 1.25 million bpd and 2 million bpd, respectively, up from an estimate of just below 1 million bpd for this month.