H&R Real Estate Investment Trust T.HR.UN

Inflation

[SNAKEYBOY]

Given how well equity markets are doing with high risk free return, it tells me currently inflation is not as big as a threat to the economy as the media and central banks portray.  Think about it 8% inflation was not a big story during covid times,  it was all about cases and re-openings etc.  Inflation has likely always been higher than 2% but just now getting stubborn attention. 

If honest solutions were looked at,  for big impact items,  food,  rent,  energy,  Healthcare, raw materials,  and given incentives to ramp production like opec flooding markets with oil,  that would help.  Rates can't tank everything that's non interest rate sensitive

[Torontojay]

Hi Snakeboy.  I have a monetarist viewpoint on where inflation is going. The money supply in the US is almost 2 years ahead of where it should be. However, the growth rate of the money supply is negative in the US which should help to bring everything back to balance. I might also add that there is still excess liquidity in the economy that is being reduced by QT which helps to drive prices

[CptnBlueberries]

Hi Torontojay, great posts. So what's the big brain macro play here? Is it to be really conservative for the second half of the year, in anticipation of the current market euphoria fizzling away on the next CPI prints? But to be agressive in 2024 should the market move lower, in anticipation of inflation being obliterated by the end of that year? Long time lurker, first time poster, just

[Frankie10]

Long-term macro trade - short fiat - how you achieve this, which fiat you short, what you pair trade, and/or which instrument(s) used (i.e. CDS) is between you and a very, very competent financial advisor - I have been in the finance game for a decade (young buck) with access to VERY compent people and I can count on one hand those who saw the inflation and then QT coming even as I explained it to

[Frankie10]

Short-term trades in a highly speculative and manipulated market is a losers game (speculative - participants; manipulated - big boys & central banks)... ask any macro nerd who has been a bear and has gotten themselves blown up. What I've learned these past 2, very profitable, years - best to stay long-only and think LONG-term. No better long-term macro play then short fiat - it's

[Torontojay]

Hi CptnBlueberries, my guess is as good as yours :)   Welcome to Stockhouse!  If central banks believe we are in restrictive policy then you want to be in short term t-bills. The yield curve is inverted which won't last forever. Long term t-notes have good capital appreciation potential but lower coupon payments.  A 5 year treasury note is not bad  giving you

[bttmfischer]

I cannot understand all this griping about  "high" interest ratest. Fresh out of school when trying, and finally bought my first house, CMHC could abbrove an NHA morthage at 6&1/2 percent per annum, if you could prove that you did not really need a mortgage. This whole BOAC fiasco happened because the availability of CHEEP MONEY , around 1-2 percent. The party is over,

[SNAKEYBOY]

Whats ther not to get? Times change.  20% rates in 1970s would  be impossible now like a good computer in the 1990s had 16 bytes of ram, now a slow computer has 256mb ram.  times change

[Frankie10]

For your benefit... you may want to zoom out and take a look at the sovereigns themselves... countries finance their exiesting debt and deficits by issuing bonds. Therefore, they issue bonds roughly equal to the annual deficit PLUS all the maturing bonds that they need to repay (they pay back debt with new debt). The latter point being the most important, as debt rolls, it is renewing at interest

[SNAKEYBOY]

Fiat debasement is 100% certain-  it is math.   Somewhere in the world the printer is going to need to turn on- AND SOON!

[BlueJay2020]

If you believe that, are you playing gold or crypto?

[SNAKEYBOY]

I prefer real estate as the hard asset.  But BITCOIN and gold should be good too

[CanSiamCyp]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Torontojay]

Cptnblueberrie is a big fan of my posts. Frankie is as well. DZ is too. They will never tell you that because their egos are too big.