CIBCThis analyst has not been the biggest fan of the company as is evident from his Neutral rating and $37.00 target. GLTA
EQUITY RESEARCH
April 27, 2023 Flash Research
JAMIESON WELLNESS INC.
Q1/F23 Preview: More Relevant Update To Come In Q2
Jamieson Wellness will report its Q1 results after market close on Thursday,
May 4. Management will host a conference call the same day at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Dial-in numbers are 855-327-6837 or 631-891-4304, and a live audio webcast
can be found here.
We expect Q1 results will provided limited information for JWEL investors. The
transition in the China business won’t be complete until Q2, while order
seasonality for youtheory is also much stronger next quarter.
Q1 revenue guidance is for $120MM-$130MM; our forecast is roughly at the
mid-point. Other sales guidance components include: up to 3% domestic
branded sales growth (lapping +9% in Q1/22); 20%-25% growth in China; rest-
of-world sales of $6MM-$7MM (approx. -10%); youtheory revenue of $14MM-
$17MM; and Strategic Partners revenue growth of 20%-30%.
IRI data (for the U.S.) was strong in the quarter, up approximately 6% across
various channels, with softer results in January and an acceleration in
February. Canadian flu case count data from Health Canada is noisy, with
significant Y/Y growth in Q1, but cases far lower than Q1/19 or Q4/22. QTD, flu
case counts have continued below their historically seasonal trend, while IRI
data is up about 3% Y/Y for Q2 so far.
We expect key topics on the Q1 call to include updated expectations for China,
as well as updates on disruptions to youtheory, which led 2023 guidance for
that brand to be well below what we believe investors had expected. The table
in Exhibit 1 below includes our estimates and consensus.