Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Kelt Increases Its 2021 Guidance

[Macmckim]

Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSX: KEL) ("Kelt" or the "Company") is providing updated guidance for 2021.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/kelt-increases-2021-guidance-production-000000805.html

[Grandcentral]

  Should equate to a 10% jump in the stock this week. GLTA

[Cheadle12]

Probably higher, short covering. Well done DW & team.  Exit 2021 21,000 boepd with a nice weight towards Oil & liquids.

[filefish]

Great news for shareholders that they are accellerating development plans. I would not be surprised to see another increase in production guidance in a couple of months. However, was a little concerned that they will slip into a net debt position and hope that they draw a red line at net 0 debt going forward. Debt Free was a large consideration for my investment in KEL.

[Seppelt]

The presentation has been updated and I don't remember the old numbers to see how the extra 30 million is spent. I see same 10 wells at Oak and 2 at Wembly brought to production in 2021. Could be the Charlie Lake or PC wells shifted to 21 from 22. The infrastructure spending of $62 million, I believe is higher than previous guidance. Could be more work or higher cost. In any event, most of

[fauxtomato]

Good eye, this is two revisions ago: https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g2nptf-2021-01-Kelt-Presentation-3.pdf But has D&C capex of 58.5 and equipment + pipeline at 28. New totals in May are 84.5 and 62. Sets up well for 2022 with so many wells awaiting tie-in, should significantly improve the NAV as more locations are booked. It's a good time to hvae a healthy balance sheet: it's

[PabloLafortune]

So no new wells this quarter? They have increased the size of the gas handling plant at Oak (see Oak page notes).  Assuming the 8 Wembley wells listed as 2022 come on line in Q1, they would be bringing on line 7, 10 and 8 wells in the next 3 quarters which based on EURs is a path to 30,000+ boepd assuming no dispositions. Seems to match up with the infrastructure. Capex budget this year is

[fauxtomato]

Are they constrained on processing at Wembley? I should look at the Petrinex data to see where the gas flows. I know some goes to TWM Pipestone, but with Keyera's Pipestone and Keyera's Wapiti phase 2 online, the biggest limiting factor is the drilling budget, I'd think? Have they committed to remaining debt free? I'm ok for them to go <1x AFFO to accelerate development now

[PabloLafortune]

Sorry, I was talking about their own gas handling (compression?), water handling, liquids handling etc. they've said they have 45,000 mcf/day at Wembley for gas + 7,500 liquids I think.  I assumed there's plenty of 3rd party processing but probably not since they've specifically mentioned Oak as having this big pipe and this big 3rd party plant they've access to. Based on the

[Seppelt]

The January presentation is too old. Must be not older than March when the company increased the caped to $120 million. Yesterday they said that the average 2021 production will be increased to 21,000 boed from 19,000 so there must be additional wells and/or rescheduling the new wells from Q4 for instance to Q3, etc. Expanding Oak facilities or adding some more stuff at Wembly and elsewhere is