Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

TD upgrade $8.50

[PabloLafortune]

See cve bb for the whole list of TD upgrades posted by mrbb. 60,888 boepd vs 25815 = 2.36. 18.50 vs 8.50 = 2.18 Nva upgraded to $18.50. Considering share count (Kelt 190M vs NVA 230M), nva debt (600M), netback (Kelt $30 vs $27 for NVA), growth (Kelt Q4 yoy 56% vs 20% for nva) and kelt vastly larger land base (350,000 acres vs 144,000), I'll take my chances with Kelt even though NVA is a good bet IMO. In paeticular, 2022 forecasts are 68000 vs 31000 = 2.19.

[justus434]

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[PabloLafortune]

Leucrotta acquired by Vermillion.  $477M for 77,000 Montney acres. With 50M 2P reserves and 2023 13,000 boepd target production. Reserves are 1/5 of Kelt, land is more than a fifth but based on projected cashflow ($24.50 per boepd) at 2023 strip, its less oil and lower netback than Kelt.  Guessing the implied valuation for Kelt is more than $11 per share.  Seems like Bay Street is

[fauxtomato]

I appreciate you burning through all of your napkins in your attempt to bring some clarity. Looking at a map of LXE in relation to other undeveloped lands, KEL and SDE are the closest read throughs: massive montney rights at both Flatrock and Pouce Coupe in that same, largely undeveloped region. KEL has what LXE was never going to have: the capacity to develop it themselves. Continued, funded

[PabloLafortune]

Good question. Amateur hour responses: #1 One of the zones at Wembley - D1? - they haven't even drilled yet and it may be the best one (could it be where CNQ is getting 65% liquids?). So unless a crazy offer was on the table, don't think that makes sense at the moment because they don't know what they have yet. #2 Pouce Coupe Gas is a nice profitable, low maintenance (2 wells a year)

[InsideEnergy]

65% liquids?  D1?  nope.  unless they found a distinct oil pool, possible but highly doubtful   you got a lot wrong pablo. #1, D1 you suggest may be the best then you admit they have not drilled it yet.. how you can make such a claim with zero actual history is simply pumping cuzz it is based on zero positive info yet. #2  pouce couoe nice little business?  no

[PabloLafortune]

Thank you for your "feedback".   #1 - my basis is CNQ's Wembley's liquids #s  for Q4 - 65% - they also reported that production exceeded their expectations by 2,500 boepd and 7Mmcf/d for the 18 well program or 139 bpd liquids and 65 boepd NG.  Here is what Kelt said about this in the Q1 PR: "One of the wells on the 4-well pad will be drilled in a

[InsideEnergy]

one other area you mess up on, you claim they must have sufficient infrastructure to bring on 14 wells.. only 2 are gas tho and that simply replaces decline right?  the other are oil wells and all that takes is to bring storage tanks onsite and of course a pipe for the gas.. so not really anything about infrastructure.. I mean you got to understand what it takes for oil wells and what it tkes

[InsideEnergy]

come on, it was well known it is not the D! zone that has oil. 

[PabloLafortune]

? Anyone have access to Peters & Co. Apparently they opined that on the basis of the Vermillion Leucrotta transaction Kelt is worth $12 although the market seems to think VET overpaid.