Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Q1 guess and $5 AECO ramifications

[PabloLafortune]

Im hoping 30,000 boepd perhaps with $35 netback hopefully. Q1 WTI worked out to $20ish more than Q4, I think the realized hedge loss will be at least $4, AECO im hoping was a little higher in Q1 than it was in Q4, NGL much higher for sure (what is going on with propane). The interesting napkin factoid to me is that with current (and 12 months out?) AECO pricing, NG revenues ALONE after royalties, more or less pays for all cash costs AND maintenance capital: 5.00*1.15*6*.92*.62 = $19.68 less op costs (8.95) less transport (3.20) less G&A (1.17) = $6.36 per boe for maintenance. In other words, oil and NGL revenue net of approx 10% royalties is pure profit (free cashflow). Food for thought only.

[mjh9413]

From March report seems large proportion of oil is hedged at below prices seen in Q1 but natgas has a lot of upside rev potential with unhedged prodn and pricing acion. Q4 saw several wells brought on stream which will also be favorable to revs but doubt if we'll see 30K boe exit Q1. Should be debt free. I continue to like a lot.

[PabloLafortune]

My production #s are guesswork and to your point, Q3 and Q4 boepd fell short of my guess... My basis for Q1 was 2021 (actual 2021 Q1 ~ 2021 annual forecast) and well status - the 3 Wembley online in Q4 should produce more in Q1 I wildly guessed, the Oak wells should produce more too, add the Pouce Coupe Gas well (1 being online in Q1, the other in Q2) and perhaps more Wembley wells (15 are to be

[InsideEnergy]

actually kelt puts out a budget each year, to go along with qtrly, the only need for your guess is to maybe boost your ego.  it is useless to pick random numbers out of the air.  you do not what each well will flow, so why the hell bother putting out guesses that are of no use? yes you noticed all the oil is hedged... well almost all of it,  guess Wilson was happy with the rev that

[PabloLafortune]

Believe it or not, I really appreciate your comment. Why? Because all I care about is that my investment in Kelt does well. I know who you are (online) - you like to insult amateurs like myself but you do know your stuff.   PS - 20% uplift seems to be what CNRL is getting as well. D1 or D3, does it matter? Nope.