Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

kel metrics superior to cr

[InsideEnergy]

a peer CR.. both about $1.2 mill market cap, very very close

cr produced more last qtr but cr got about $38 per boe while kel was $50  cr is dragged down by a bad hedge book and higher costs

cr carries the debt.

both really identical investments so which is superior?  management goes to kel, they never ran a company so close to death as cr was.  kel runs a better outfit.  when most retail or even the professional money guys want to play a small gas producer, they know of kel, it has done well time and again... they will invest in kel over cr unless they wanted the high torque when cr was pennies a share

Kel wins on debt.. cr carries a fair bit, always have been  over leveraged 

production while cr did produce more it costs them  more to produce it, kel gets more out of each barrel than crew does.

 crew. was a huge torque play to recovery, so bounced of a deeper bottom as they were priced for bankruptcy before the turn in commodity prices.   now that both are priced at about $1.2 bill debt included... same price... is is simple to pick out the better outfit

assets?  anyone know the area plays?  both are in the proven window of production from the Montney.  both have new cores. crew has the higher costs from their producing core.  kel has lower costs and better upside at Wembley area.  it has more running room.  in the new areas.. crew has groundbirch that appears to be a drier gas area.. kel has oak and has higher condy than groundbirch.kel has a massive land spread for long term growth at oak

crew had hedged the hell out of their base production and grow into unhedged production.  kel has lower hedges and is enjoying a better price/boe

where does crew look better?  it don't.

[MustangMatt]

Exactly, Crew would out perform short term because they were priced for Bankruptcy. Crew and others like Crescent Point, had to lock in hedges, likey pressured by the bankster syndicates they owe money with. Kelt should run with zero hedge, being debt free is the hedge. Kelt should outperform this next phase of the cycle, cheers Matthew P.S New 52 week high $ 7.25    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Oldnagger]

I came here looking for an alternative to Crew.the Thing is that I know Crew fairly well but not Kelt. Based on acreage Kelt has more per EV dollar but I haven't seen too much   as how to evaluate it. Crew seems to have some very high EUR's and the last 5 wells that have been tested  at Septimus have been spectacular as to initial flow rates which explains my hesitancy to

[Oldnagger]

Just to further explain my thoughts concerning debt. In todays market ,wells  once completed can usually payout in less than a year. So hedge for a year out (the curves for  gas are essentially flat ) , borrow the money drill complete and produce. Rinse and Repeat . Maybe KELT can gain some infrastructure at the same time. Of course all this may be held up by spring breakup !! For CREw

[Oldnagger]

One last thing I nearly forgot to mention, it is not my intention to sell any of my gassy holdings , only to diversify and accumulate. Now more than ever , the world needs more gas not less. that will probably never end. there is still over 6 bcf per day equivalent of coal being burnt for electrical power in the US. There are lots of other reasons to like gas. Eventually even the most slow witted

[InsideEnergy]

yep debt sinks those that have gone under, it is a drug.  it takes strength to go against the crowd as kel has done, it just shows their total superiority.  cr built up massive debt that has given them what?   crew came into the world with wonderful land in all the best plays, they sold it bit by bit and never grew into the monster it could have, if they had run one asset well,

[Oldnagger]

I first bought Crew with the proceeds of money I received at the time from the rake-over  of Painted Pony (whence my moniker) What attracted me initially was the fact that debt was not repayable till 2024 and that additional funds were available from an option to sell a further interset in a gas plant. Crew surprised everyone by undertaking an aggressive drilling program at the same time that

[PabloLafortune]

Kelt management is doing an incredible job building up the asset base but man o man are they conservative.  With the hedges in place, I'm guessing they can cover the $250M capex budget from cashflow based on $55 WTI and $3.50 AECO....

[PabloLafortune]

These enterprise value valuation models are completely flawed with respect to E&Ps that have debt versus those that don't.  We shouldn't be surprised - these are banks after all, they don't want investors to think that indebted companies are worth less. That's because E&Ps that have a lot of debt will be diverting some of their cashflow this year and next to repay

[gonatgasgo]

where does crew look better? 3-year return (essentially from pre pandemic levels) CR: 355% Kel: 18%