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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Alternate Symbol(s):  KELTF

Kelt Exploration Ltd oil and gas company. The Company is focused on the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas resources in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia. The Company's assets are comprised of three operating divisions: Wembley/Pipestone in Alberta; Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River in Alberta, and Oak/Flatrock in British Columbia. The... see more

TSX:KEL - Post Discussion

Kelt Exploration Ltd > Talked with Sadig today
View:
Post by MyHoneyPot on Nov 22, 2022 9:46pm

Talked with Sadig today

I have very much followed the Pipestone play of NVA and am very impressed with the speed and exploitation Nuvista has developed pipestone, Nuvista will fill their plant capacity by the year end. 

Large production at Nuvista (Pipestone) has come on in a very rapid and short period of time. 

Looking at the Map you can see the difference in approach that Kelt has taken regarding proving up the resource at Pipestone, Kelt feels that currently at Pipestone they have production behind pipe, and the field is not developed optimally for production because their objective is to prove up the play resource. The Kelt land has higher liquids resources then general production in the greater Pipestone play area.  

PIPESTONE LAND VALUE.GT. 1 BILLION DOLLARS

Kelts feeling that the land alone at pipestone could be worth 1 billion dollars, they are the second largest landowner in the region. Kelt can not add significant production at Pipestone until year end when more processing capacity is available. 

With the plant issues in Q2 and Q3, a station 2 short term gas price collapse, it looks like Kelt is going to complete the year strong. Likely 30,000 boe is going to be  the 4th quarter production number.  

It is hard to imagine that with a.GT. 30% increase in production year over year, and likely a 50% increase in reserves. 

Kelts share price is only 10% higher than it was a year ago, and their reserves have significantly increased year over year. The current NAV of Kelt shares is $11.47 a share fully diluted. My guess that NAV will be around 15 dollars a share in February when they update the reserves. 

The current price target of 6 analysts, have a price target of $8.56 but I think this is very conservative. 80% of Pipestone has been delineated and so then a monetization opportunity will be available soon, 3 well licenses were received at Oak, so they are drilling wells there. 

They are also going to pursue their Charlie Lake opportunity, and it has more oil and will provide stable low risk cashflow, and the proving up of another resource opportunity. 

I am all in again at Kelt, what I like it the debt free company with thousand of drilling locations, and with zero debt it really is you can think of Kelt shares as a commodity currency and protection from a currency collapse. That my conspiracy theory.

Good Luck to ALL

Comment by PabloLafortune on Nov 24, 2022 11:33am
Its not conspiracy, its reality.  If you buy a 10 year bond, you get 3.25% income but by then you may be eating half the steak with the same money.  Whereas if you put the money in Kelt, reserves will grow at least 20% every year plus oil and gas will probably keep up with inflation - you'll be eating bigger?steaks not smaller one. Thats why inflation is such a problem.
Comment by Oldnagger on Nov 25, 2022 10:05pm
To compare Kelt to a 3.25 % bond , one would need to determine reserves value per share discounted at a say 5% rate. We already know that 2021 reserves were valued over $ 11 per share based on a $ 68 per barrel WTI and a 10 % discount rate and only a small percentage of Kelt s land. With very low debt levels and high recycle ratios, Kelt is superbly positioned to capture continuing higher returns. ...more  
Comment by PabloLafortune on Nov 26, 2022 1:05pm
Old, I was more interested in what my money will be worth in 10 years. (Simplistic Economics 101 scenario follows). The steaks I like cost me $20/lb. With $1000 I can have an 8 ounce steak twice a week at home, I'm away on holidays 2 weeks a year (and thus don't eat at home). I own a series of 10 year bonds that I use for income and I redeem $1,000 worth every year as my steak "budget ...more  
Comment by Oldnagger on Nov 26, 2022 2:35pm
If you are anything like me, I would recommend the smallest size possible of steak 10 years from now !! Spend the whatever else you earn on exercise equipment LOL
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