Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Kelt won't go anywhere.......

[mrmomo]

Unless...... they get MUCH bigger, either through merger and/or acquisitions or just plainly disappear by selling out to a larger producer. They've been stagnating for some time now & stuck in thick, deep mud as many of its peers are as well. Guys like Pipestone, Crew, Birchcliff (and many others!) in similar a situation like poor old Kelt. There are just too many variables & factors that are NOT conducive to the industry as a whole, in these times we are living.

What most folks here don't understand is that this ISNT the 90's anymore, those glory days & golden years for the sector are long gone. You can even make a case up to the first decade of the new millennia, which was still a decent time to thrive for this sector, these companies. Now that's all gone. I could get into a deep philosophical & political discussion with you guys on WHY this is the case, but i won't ......not here.....not now.

The only thing you need to know is that times are VERY different and that the Canadian oil patch NEEDS to change, reinvent itself and move along with it.......or die a slow painful death. In Kelt's case, to understand WHY they are where they are, you must first understand the past history of the company. Especially the last 5 years. This current form of Kelt isn't the first iteration of the company, it has been "reinvented" a few times. So you know the company isn't a stranger or reluctant to accept & inforce change, when it is needed.

For comparisons, if you measure up Kelt's performance to its direct & comparable peers, it has vastly underpreformed. And there's a reason for this. Going back just three years ago when the sector was on the verge of complete collapse, Kelt "decided" to make a significant move for the company and it's direction. In order to survive those diffilcult times, they sold off a large portion of their producing assets to par down their heavy debt load. Of course i'm talking aobut Fireweed/Inga, which was a major move and shift in direction.

Whether that was the correct decision to make or not is debatable. I personally was on the fence & neutral with the validity of the move, but i understood quite well the reasoning of WHY they were doing it, as there was just to much uncertainity at that time. Selling off assets at firesale prices at a bottom in the cycle isn't anyone's first choice, but hard decisions had to be made. To be fair to the company & mgmt though, if i remember correctly, they did get a fairly decent price.......for that time of course. I think where they erred was not in the selling of prime properties in bad times, but in NOT following up with a decent, well thought out plan. And by not having a good well constructed PLAN B, they paid a HEAVY price years after. And here we are.....correction.....you are, as i'm not a s/h anymore and haven't been one for some time.

So Kelt NOW has another decision to make. Something that should have been done a long time ago. Get BIGGER or get OUT. And as much as i know about this sector, i really don't know where Kelt will lean to, as they could swing both ways. But one thing is certain, their need to drastically alter the direction of the company, because change is upon them (and their peers!) whether they like it or not. I personally have a few ideas in mind, if they want to poke my mind for some good options for the company going forward.

Now you understand why Kelt is where it is.........

GLTA

[Oldnagger]

Thanks , we will use your post as a marker point to remind us when the share price began rising again !!