Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

A good quarter all considering

[MyHoneyPot]

Still no debt on the balance sheet.

Oak wells pushed out to Q3 for completion.

Gas production guidance reduced 1,000 boe/day. 

Picked up some more North Pouce and Charlie lake land.

Really setting up for a significant 6-18 month play, with strong upside. 

Oil production is up significantly year or year. 

3,300 boe/day shutin due to fires otherwise production would of been 29,705+3200 = 32,905 boe/day

IMHO

[PabloLafortune]

Thank you for your takes MHP. I was pleased with the quarter as well all things considered. The oil/conde/pentane mix is up to 31% (31% of NGLs are pentanes). This is my key kelt metric. Charlie Lake is becoming a thing across 3 sub plays (a page was added to the presentation). Kelt seems to be expanding its land acquisition budget too..  Oak is a good gas play due to higher liquids than

[PabloLafortune]

17 wells are being completed in the 2nd half, not 19. A couple other points: the current oil % projection is up around 4% from initial projections (26-27% to 30-31%) thats a lot considering most of what will be produced in 2023 was producing in 2022.  Last, the balance sheet is pretty much identical to year end, they do have a $25M unrealized loss on those natural basis hedges that go all the

[fauxtomato]

Thanks PL. The share price response has been gratifying after we spent six months under $5 from about Dec 2022 to May 2023. I bought more than is sensible but am not ready to sell yet: the inflection point appears to be coming towards the end of 2024 when CSV Albright starts up, around the time LNG Canada should be commissioning. Can be hard to be patient as an investor, but when they're debt

[fauxtomato]

Didn't expect to see $7 yet, now thinking about reducing margin and booking some profits. Still by far my largest holding, don't want to sell too soon but don't want to repeat the beating I took the second half of 2022, either. CR is also moving today, wonder if PIPE being taken out of circulation has increased the demand for the few remaining Montney Jr/Mid sized producers. SDE is

[PabloLafortune]

CR is too gassy for me, I sold a bit of Kelt and bought NVA.

[PabloLafortune]

The long term outlook for US natgas seems grim for Canadian producers.  Too much associated gas (Permians will produce it regardless if its profitable or not) growth and a coming dichotomy IMO between local (HH) prices and LNG (US producers are signing direct supply contracts, Conoco just did a 20 year deal yesterday).  Permian associated gas production is so big now that even 5% growth

[TouchDown12]

Associated gas won't grow if the oil rig count keeps dropping (-4 today and trending down). It is easy to overthink some of the unknows but what you stated might makes sense in justifying taking profits today. Not sure it makes total sense going out to November. I won't be selling till it's well over 8. GLTA TD12

[PabloLafortune]

Longer laterals. 30% more productive according to Pioneer Resources.