Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Development Strategy Going Forward -Delineation done

[MyHoneyPot]

Kelt in recent meetings, told shareholders they are now in development mode, and pretty well all the Alberta Lands are fully deliniated. 

OAK
In 2023 Oak produced 4493 boe/da 23% liquids on 25 MMcf of plant capacity. The netbback was $18.91 boe/day.

April 1,2024 Oak gas plant capacity was increased to 45 MMcf a day. That will result in Oak producing just over 8,000 boe/day. (Thats about 3,500 boe increase at Oak once the plant is filled)

WEMBLEY
Wembley has 14 well PADS that will be drilled in 2024, these are part of their development drilling plan.  Three pad, 14 wells that will go a long way to filling up the 50 MMcf they expect to come on in Q4.

POUCE COUPE NORTH
This is primarily a charlie lake play but by recompleting  a handful of vertical wells, and then getting strong results with their horizontial follow up wells Kelt confirmed the resource is there. So increasing the size of the battery sets this play up as a 2025 Charlie Lake opportunity, with maybe a montney well thrown into the mix, to investigate that opportunity as well. 

Spirit River
This play is drill to fill, and they have lots of locations to keep this play idling along. 

IMHO

[PabloLafortune]

They have committed to 35 MMcf plant capacity expansion @ Pouce Coupe. Do we know when and where (oilier or dry gas)?

[MyHoneyPot]

Those are some good question, and it looks like a Pouce Coupe they have both gassy and liquids rich opportunities. Also it would be good to know the size of the batter they are working on at North Pouce Coupe (Charlie Lake). What it feels like is that David Wilson has laid the gauntlet down, and said, we know the following. We understand the landbase/resource We have or are working on right

[PabloLafortune]

CPG paid $1.7B for SDE's oily play; while production was 37,000 boepd, 2P was only 200MM. Still much much lower valuation than Pioneer.  Exxon paid Pioneer shareholders full value for the oil. Oil market is quite predictable and efficient, big or small doesn't matter that much (thabk you OPEC). What they got is free natural gas that probably nobody can sell like they can. 

[MyHoneyPot]

Does you Wembley Evaluation include the stacked Charlie Lake (20,000 acres), that come on with more than 70% oil ratio's. Thanks IMHO

[PabloLafortune]

2P was 217MM at y/e '23, no Charlie Lake reserves booked afaik. Btw, AAV oil and conde volume down 15% from Q4 to Q1. Extrapolated annual CF $270MM. Q2 will be even worse I believe for relatively unhedged producers. Natgas = Tough business. No wonder Mike Rose was CEO of the year.  Making silk purses out of ...Fortunately, most (eg see Antero news release) believe production cuts, higher

[MyHoneyPot]

A long time hold of mine is POU, and they did a deal with Woodside Energy (42 Billion Dollar Company), to go 50:50 in Liard.  I don't know the details of the deal but POU is operating and Woodside is a global LNG superpower, maybe that is how it is done? A small Plug the wells in Liad can often be 50B and produce more that 50MMcf a day, they got all chevrons land and apache land, and

[PabloLafortune]

AFAIK, the key is to be on the head of agreement ie selling globally. Most US producers didn't do this and are now playing catch up - see EQT and Chesapeake Energy presentations and press releases. Otherwise you are still getting HH pricing +/- basis. And of course there is no correlation between local prices and global prices ( the exporter benefits when local prices are low and export high..

[MyHoneyPot]

A 300 section resource at OAK, with good liquids is a massive resource.  One of my long term holds - POU just did a 50% partnerhips with all of Chevon Lands and all of Apache Canada Lands in (Liard+Horn River) with Woodside Energy one of the largest LNG providers to the world. This 42 Billion dollar company is spewing CASH from this LNG operations and wants to be Global. Woodside would make

[PabloLafortune]

One thing for sure: Canadian LNG exporters are hoping every natgas producer in BC goes hard and dramatically increases production because that's what's going to keep the LNG cost of supply low.... This is what happened in the US and LNG exporters benefited handsomely. Producers? Not so much. Its pretty smart actually: get every producer excited about LNG when in fact those producers have