Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Kelts Charlie Lake - adjacent to TVE Charlie Lake

[MyHoneyPot]

TVE Charlie Lake Assets Presentation LinK

Kelt Wembly/Pipestone Charlie Lake Link

So TVE have just recently had some of their best Charlie Lake results, and they are adjacent to Kelt the next range over. 

These are highly perspective lands and Tamarack is getting 67% oil from these wells.  Some of the wells have a IRR:>200%

The Charlie Lake wells are a little cheaper than the Montney wells to drill and with that percentage of oil it provide attractive returns. 

TVE has about 900 million in debt. a share holder dividend, and is commited to doing share buybacks. Their future progress is going to be slow.

What is Kelt going to do when its producing 50,000 boe/day with no dividend commitment, no reason to pay down debt, and no buybacks in place?

Kelt is going to be a cash cow, and this year they will complete 32 wells according to plan.

What is next year going to look like. 

IMHO
MHP

[PabloLafortune]

In the spirit of transparency for readers, 9/30 wells drilled and 11/32 completions in the presentation were/are at Oak and Pouce Coupe West. I'm guessing $80MM capex.  Oak is 80% gas, PCW is 90% gas.  No material natural gas hedges in place either (basis only).. 2nd half AECO is what, $1 (actual + strip)?  So what will the netback be on those 2 plays in 2024, $40MM? IOW, its

[Trapped]

Not according to Pumper #1. That lack of hedging is gonna hurt..

[integrity11]

Trapped, are you currently a Kel shareholder? Just curious.

[Trapped]

Yes, it's been dead money for a long time but it's pretty clear they'll be bought out before long. Small position. I have a much larger (read: massive) position in ARX and was beyond thrilled (read: sarcasm) to see NoMoneyBot back in the fold with a starter position. One week he hates it; the next week he loves it. Flip-flopping pumper-troll exhibits signs of mental illness and will

[gassygeezer]

Just curious if you value past,present or future holders to comment?

[MyHoneyPot]

I am specificly discussing Charlie Lake - Wembley Pipestone, nothing else.  Not the presentation but individual slides.  Thanks MHP IMHO

[teashade]

>>What is next year going to look like.  More of the same. They're going to put all cashflow back into the ground, damn the prices. Does anyone see FCF next year for KEL? Cash cow is not a term I'd use.

[MyHoneyPot]

What you can look forward forsure, is increased production and a increase share price in My Opinion.  I expect that will well pads now in Wembley/Pipestone you can expect better well economics, more Charlie Lake production, and more cash flow.  Kelt doesn't pay a dividend because they have vast investable resouce base, that needs capital. They dont do share buybacks because every

[teashade]

They're not buying back shares or paying a dividend because they're cashflow negative. As a shareholder NAV benefits me as much as analyst targets.

[gassygeezer]

True, wait unti,l they further dilute the float to themselves, even if prices crash further...old game,same team,new name