LIQUOR STORES NA LTD 4.70 PCT DEBS T.LIQ.DB.B

13 percent dividend ????/ Solo Liquor Store Competition

[buyvalue1]

Dyod

wow. What a yield

Can't see Mgmt keeping that going

And

It will be interesting to see same store sales numbers compared to last year. 

Solo Liquor Stores have really expanded in LIQ's major markets. Check out Solo's pricing to LIQ on their flyer online. 

Wonder if if a potential divy cut has already been factored in?

Maybe liquor stores are not as recession proof as they seem. 

Wonder how how big of a bonus the CEO is going to get from the stock price melt down. I would reckon it should be zero but way are the chances of that. Wonder if their banker got the cheap scotch as a gift this Christmas or the expensive stuff???? Haha

Good Luck Longs
Hope you won't be crying in your beers. 

BV1

[kijiji]

when the visa bills start coming in January and the layoffs keep happening, and the extra taxes from the NDP kick in.... it will put a dent in the booze budget and sales will have to suffer.   Look for LIQ and its juicy divi to shrink.

[mike49]

self full-filling prophesies when the doom crowd shows up. listened to enough bananas on bnn this week to know that anything energy,anything alberta,and anything over 4 % yield is toxic. the bag holders here decide on return,plain and simple. and solo can explain same store retention but margin drop to their own backers. what #s do you want to read? phooey.

[Ticker28]

Dividend is safe and this was already addressed with facts in an earlier post.  Please before posting some outragous claims try doing the math first.  You might fool the average speculator but you won't fool thoses investors who have done their homework. Only chance of dividend cut was if oil took a leg lower and they had to protect the balance sheet.  Oil didn't take that

[Ticker28]

The relatively neutral same store sales in Alberta while competitors are reported to have lost double digit same store sales seem to prove the Solo Liquor argument as having no merit. Sorry typo - Meant to say that the posters premise about Solo Liquor seems to lack facts.  In fact i would argue that LSNA may have take a large portion of sales away from any competitor in the resource

[alxoren]

Sorry, but I tend to dissagree with your analysis .... When the Avg Joe and his buddies are laid off the oil field and have no reason to get up early in the morning,  they tend to skip the fancy downtown bar and drink their EI money in a privet gathering , where they consume liquore bought in a retail store. They will get sober in the evenings only when they will have to get up early for

[buyvalue1]

They will be buying the cheaper low margin beer brands and wines. Same thing with hard liquor. Cheap low margin whiskey and vodka. Solo is cheaper than LIQ in all those areas. Wonder if the premier wine stores they opened will be giving them fat margins? Haha. It's pretty easy to see why short interest is rising. How can you payout 13 percent with the gross margins they have? i don't

[sevushka]

Thanks for the scotch, short.  Keep paying my divvy.  Using your webbroker TA for that $5 target?   Good luck with that.  Just don't lose your shorts.  Cheers!

[Ticker28]

Buyvalue, No offense but most of your message is sensless dribble.  Try just sticking to the facts and not rhetoric about margin calls and short position fantasy that don't exist except in your mind.  So I will skip that non useful part of your rant. As for Solo being cheaper that I will have to confirm but I would think LSNA is every bit as competitive.  Don't forget it

[scarface9]

Ticker does the weaker Canadian $ have any effect on LSNA, (positive/negative)

[Ticker28]

Hi Scarface, The quick answer is yes it will.  What is harder to determine is how much of an impact it will have and if it will give earnings a boost or a drag. Obviously a weaker Canadian dollar bodes well for exporters but can hurt importers.  That being said though, this can be alleviated by using option strategies such as covered calls or puts which hedges against currency

[Storman]

Hi Ticker28. Most of your analysis is logical but the stock keeps going down. It seems like investors are either not impressed with LIQ or they are over-worried about Albertans future income. Do you think the next two quarters will make it or brake it for LIQ? 

[Ticker28]

Hi Storman, Good questions.  I agree that investors are currently worried and this could be leading to discontentment with the company due to the current market price. Just remember the current price the market offers doesn't necessarly reflect reality of the company or it's value.  Yes it is only worth what another will pay but the true value lies on the books and the future

[buyvalue1]

D y o d sure sounds like your desperate Ticker28. Such dribble soooo - Dec 19/2014 bought deal at $14.65 a share    - the clients that bought that from their brokers at Scotia and CIBC got to be real happy. Haha.       If they would have gone short at that time, they would be drinking champagne instead of crying in        Stale beer ............. if

[Ticker28]

Bestvalue, Most of your post are aggressive and always set out to attack the person and not the argument.  Most of your nonsense is made up and promotes fear over fact.  If you want to challenge the bull case do your best but do so with something factual and that has substance.  I don't mind a converse view of things but it need be factual.  Also I'm not the IR for

[Ticker28]

In comparison to Solo Liquor Stores who has grown from only 1 retail outlet to 22 stores since being founded in 1996 is hardly considered really expanding as the one poster mentioned.  Plus again Solo Liquor is fully exposed with concentration risk to Alberta's economy.  I bet they are one of the ones suffering double digit retraction on same store sales. Since they are private