McCoy Global Inc T.MCB

A quick reality check on how to invest in MCB.

[DOCInvestor]

Disclosure: I am an Edmontonian and an acquaintance (we are friends, but he doesn't invite me to golf type of friend) of the CEO Jim Rakievich. I also own shares in this company with an ACB of about 48 cents.

I promised I would only use this account to talk about CloudMD, but I'm not making a separate account just for this singular post.

The "sell now" guy doesn't know jack. They've done their layoffs. They are focusing on their most profitable and time sensitive goods/services. This is not a growth company. However, they have enough money to ride this out and their products are desperately needed.

So If you are invested in MCB, you need to chill out. The next 2-3 quarters are going to suck. If you need your money to be earning NOW go buy Altagas, earn a 5% dividend and probably get 20% return in the next 12 months.  You're welcome.

However, if you want a 300% - 500% return on your money in the next 3 years, buckle your seatbelts, because with a miniscule market cap MCB will do this for you (at 60 cents) if the following 4 things happen:

1) Continued capital spending cuts, environmental whining, lack of new investment, and monetary inflation result in a supercycle for oil. It doesn't need to be $100/barrel Brent/WTI, but a few quarters in the 80s wouldn't hurt;

2) MCB avoids being delisted;

3) They don't flip management; and

4) They take advantage of less competition to land a few bigger contracts Q3/2021 and beyond

I think #1 is a likely scenario, and hopefully that is enough to prevent a delisting with a quick bump past 80 cents a share from enthusiasm alone, and that in turn will probably result in no management flips, and then really all that matters is getting some orders. 

$3.00/share doesn't even get this company to a 100 million market cap. It's an acquisition target even in a reduced spending environment at anything below $2.00/share. 

Bonus: With the sudden surge in oil prices, anyone with half a brain isn't going to get rid of their shares now. So if you think you can time cheaper shares two quarters from now you might be right, but you might also be getting discounted shares down to 90 cents from $1.20.

[BuffetsProdigy]

Thanks for the write up.  Agree with pretty much all you said.  There's been a pretty big ask at 62 cents and appears to be the same seller...so someone sizeable is definitely selling.  It could blow past .62 rather quickly when the selling stops.

[Possibleidiot01]

I appreciate your post ; there is a  part of your thesis that  I don't completely agree with - I think $60plus  oil would be pretty good for the company if sustained. Of course $80 would be better. While i can't say the next 2 or 3 quarters will be stellar , I have this possibly idiotic hope that they will be adequate as in cash flow neutralish.. I am very chilled out